FT bubble spot with 77

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FT bubble spot with 77

We are on exact bubble of the final table of a freezout with ~500 players. 10th place pays about 7 buy-ins, 9th place is 9 BI, 1st place is like 110 BI. Almost all the remaining players (including myself) are >98% rated by OPR with combined profit well into seven figures. There are no desperate short stacks, the shortest player is like 16 bbs.

Our stack is 6/10, 24 big blinds. Our stats are 17/13/5. We are on the button with 7-7, two people fold, and we raise 2 bbs.

1) Is it better to limp to avoid ICM rape at this spot?

Brazilian chipleader (~50 bbs) on the small blind runs like 28/23/12. He 3bet two of my three opens earlier, first time with AA (I won preflop with an underpair), second time I folded. Once again he 3bets me to 4.5bb, and the big blind folds.

2) What is the best line here?

Math hint: if he is calling a shove with 99+ AQ+, I need him to fold ~48% of hands to make it a chip-neutral play.
But I have no idea how to adjust math to reflect ICM.

16 Comments

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AdamHendrix 12 years, 1 month ago
Jam. Your jam looks mega strong here into a big stack, and on the bubble. I am not really good w/ the maths, but in these spots w/ his stats your well ahead of his range and even if he calls I don't think you will ever be in too bad of a s pot.
Chris Barker 12 years, 1 month ago
In game, I would often shove here, run into a bigger hand and feel a little regretful that I didn't stop and think. How frequently does he 3 bet the from the BB? What underpair has he seen you 4 bet jam? I think those are two important questions. It is pretty unlikely that he is 3bet folding, so his range is probably ahead of 77.

Limping is only a decent option if you are planning to fold to a 3 bet, otherwise I am not huge fan. Nearly every flop is going to look pretty grim.

I think some would advocate jamming as it takes the thought out of it and puts max pressure on. I am not a huge fan as it feels a little spewy with 22bb.

Raise folding feels pretty weak, but can we wait and find a better spot? You are really guessing here and it also depends how loose you think the BB will call. If he is calling as low as 88, KQ, AJ it gets even stickier.

Stop and going is an option - the flat could confuse the BB and looks kind of strong on a weird way.

I can't really help with the math. Instinctively I think it is a jam, but ICM wise it is probably smarter to fold and wait for a better spot although I feel pretty weak advocating this.
Tom M 12 years, 1 month ago
A Brazilian with a lot of chips? Doubt I do anything here besides shove my stack into his face, especially with no soft spots in this field.
Chris Barker 12 years, 1 month ago
If we jam here we are really hoping for a fold. The quality of the field does make jamming more appealing, but I am not super pleased about getting it in here. I also think that with ICM, there will certainly be better spots with 20bb left and on the FT bubble - I think folding is the better option. The more I watch the best players play/videos, the more I see many of them willing to fold more tightly than I would in close spots. I think that folding is likely to be more profitable long term in terms of ICM.
Tom M 12 years, 1 month ago
I just don't think we can fold button vs. blind to him when we've already folded to a 3 bet before. We're obviously not open jamming 24 bb's from the button and we can raise pretty wide here. I see him folding a whole lot of hands when it's half his stack if he's wrong. He has ICM considerations as well and doesn't have to take a high variance spot.
Chris Barker 12 years, 1 month ago
If he has seen us jam once out of two times (I want to know which pair he has seen us jam) then he is unlikely to be 3betting particularly light vs our stack size, again, we have folded before, but with how many bb? I think 77 would be right at the bottom of our 4bet jamming range, so we should definitely think about folding, It is close. But I am sure for the sake of folding 2bb, that we can find a better spot with 22bb left to make a better profit long term.
Misha Savinov 12 years, 1 month ago
Thank you all for the thoughts. I shoved and just ran into aces for the second consecutive time. Apparently, it was unavoidable, given the situation, and is overall quite a standard play. However, sometimes we have to re-check our standard lines, because the game is evolving constantly, with all that button limping suggested by Ansky on 2p2 here and there, so I made the thread.
MentalMuscle 12 years, 1 month ago
Would open jamming really be that horrible Tom? If so, why? I'm starting to think shoving is the new min raise (lol, seriously). Seems like it will work a lot and no one has a clue what you are doing.

Misha, when you min raised pre were you intending to 4-bet all in against anyone who played back at you? Did you think he had a foldable range (if so, what would it be?), or were willing to play a flip? (or worst case scenario run into a bigger pair). Sorry if that sounds aggressive or condescending. I don't mean it that way. Genuinely curious.

For whatever it's worth I think I would have openshoved pre. And second choice would be 2x pre and fold to the 2.25x rr.

Could calling his rr be an option, in position?
Tom M 12 years, 1 month ago
A Brazilian CL with a 12% 3 bet who 3 bets us button to blind - I really don't see finding a fold here with 77. I think he has enough hands in his 3 bet range that can fold to a 4 bet jam like a lot of suited and unsuited Ax hands etc.

Open jamming feels bad. Sure, we pick up the blinds and antes a fair amount and go from 24 bb to to like 26 or 27 bb. Maybe we make 88 and 99 shrug and fold? Probably not. We're inducing nothing worse and getting called by everything better. I just can't see this being good.

And, in my opinion, 77 doesn't flop well enough to call a 3 bet when we're going to fold to most c-bets or 2 barrels and then be the new short stack.
Misha Savinov 12 years, 1 month ago
MentalMuscle, yes I was planning to raise and 4bet shove my hand. I'd have to fold to a 3 bet shove from the CL, though.

As I don't have an open shove range with stacks above 14-16 bb in my game, it's hard for me to discuss this line from math standpoint. However, I have a story about it, not really relevant to the hand above, but anyway. A very good friend of mine was playing WSOP ME (2012) and made it to the top 200 or so. He had a really aggro table, and he is also a kinda crazy aggro guy. So he wakes up with 5-5 under the gun with 28 big blinds, thinks briefly about being 3bet and cold 4bet light, and just ships the whole stack. Sam Holden to his left has queens, gg. Once again, not really relevant to the situation, but it kinda hurts to burn a decent stack like this. So I don't do this for the sake of emoEV :)
MentalMuscle 12 years, 1 month ago
Fair enough.

My thoughts are that it seems better to shove and force ICM decision on others, than to raise 2x and then 4-bet all in against what seems to me like zero fold equity - just not sure anyone is 3-betting to 2.25x and not inducing your shove. Even if they are Brazilian ;)

I mean does anyone ever expect anything other than a shove from the OP when they 3-bet him like that? And because of that I think opponent is unlikely to hold something like A5s that he might fold, or even 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, (which I think they would just 3-bet shove with if they are going to play it at all). Best hope is to be flipping against KQ+, AT+? (Honestly I think the 2.25x 3-bet blinds versus button on exact bubble is 99+, AQ, AK, and everything else just shoves or folds).

Or you think maybe they are spazzing sometimes with QJs, A9o, etc? Seems like it will be rare for that to happen.
Tom M 12 years, 1 month ago
Yeah I guess the real question is over how many hands does he have a 3 bet percentage of 12? Coulda just been card racking this tournament. And how often he's 3 bet from the blinds vs somewhere like CO or Button

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