Fold to over-bet?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Fold to over-bet?

Hit this spot in a small ($3) MTT on Bovada. No reads of note on Villain.

Blinds: 500/1000/100 ante

Hero [64K] dealt Jc10c in the BB

Villain 1 UTG with 28K min-raises to 2,000, Villain 2 BTN with 73.5K min-re-raises to 3K, Hero calls, Villain 1 calls...

Flop [~10K] 10dKc8c

Hero checks, Villain 1 checks, Villain 2 bets 24K, Hero goes all-in for 61K, Villain 1 folds, Villain 2 calls...

Turn: Js
River: Qs

Hero shows two pair: Jacks and 10's
Villain wins with two pair: Kings and Jacks

To be completely honest I didn't notice he 2.5x over-bet the flop, but did add it up and decided to shove since we wouldn't have enough chips left to have an appropriate sized jam on the turn. We're pretty deep for this stage in the tournament so we could fold pre or OTF and still be a big stack but I don't love either option. Did I just punt this off or can we not really fold here? Do we 4-bet pre without any solid reads? Any thoughts are appreciated.

3 Comments

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Priski 8 years, 11 months ago

Finally downloaded Pokerstove and ran some simulations which make me feel better about shoving flop, but still curious what you guys think about how the huge over-bet effects our decision, if at all.

GrumpyGrinder 8 years, 11 months ago

hi. min 3betting pre shows that villain is a fun player (most of the time). i dont mind peeling pre as OR is getting mad price to call too. overbet OTF looks like a protection bet from Kx hands that we have enough eq to justify a shove. on occasion fish will show up with some gutshots and smaller/bigger flush draws. just run the math ;) peace

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