Fold AQ on a A,A,T flop?
Posted by ilathegreat
Posted by
ilathegreat
posted in
Mid Stakes
Fold AQ on a A,A,T flop?
Bit of context: This is a live tournament - regular locals play with a field size of around 125. Freezout structure with no-rebuys starting at 150 BBs. People usually play very tight except a few maniacs who try to capitalise on this. We were on level 4 or 5 where antes just kicked in. Everyone is very deep (70BBs +). 10 players in the table.
Hand: I was in LJ position with AQo. UTG+1 and UTG+3 player limped and I raised to 4 BBs. Got a call from Cut-off, Small Blind, Open limper and the limper behind.
Flop comes A,A,T (rainbow).
Everybody checks to me. I bet half pot. Cut-off folds, Small Blind folds. Open limper just calls and the limper behind folds. We go heads-up.
The turn comes 5d. The open limper just goes all-in quickly. Should I call or fold?
It didn't seem like the card mattered to the villain and felt like he decided it on the flop. I still have around 50BBs left in my stack. I didn't want to risk my entire stack. And usually people go for full value in these tournaments when they have it and don't bluff too much. So, i talked myself into folding showing the Ace(hoping he would show his hole cards). Unfortunately he mucked and took a large pot. I didn't have any read on this player as it was a new table that I moved onto. And for the next 30 hands, he played very tight. Nothing too loose.
My question is what hand ranges could he be donking for the entire stack? Why not let me bet the turn and then go all-in? And is this a tight fold? should i be calling in this spot?
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Exact stack sizes would help. It sounds like a big pot being you made it 4x and it went 5 ways to the flop. That being said, his open shove on the turn doesn't make much sense but isn't a ridiculous overbet since there is at least 40bbs in the pot going to the turn. I could see him showing up with a boat here easily. He probably has all A10 in his range, A5 suited, maybe some A5off even (sounds like a weak field so I wouldnt be surprised) and 55. The pot is huge and he doesn't know how to play his hand so he just shoves. Looks like value to me BUT I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see some random spazz like A9, AJ, K10, JJ even.
Thanks man. Exactly my thoughts. The night was too young to bust out. folded my hand to pick a better spot. Definitely not a great feeling
This seems like a bad fold given the limited information of the hand against presumably average casino opponents, given that you're only beaten by AK, AT, and A5. Firstly, their limp from early position; I think the player would raise all combos of AK and probably ATss, unless they're limping their entire range, because they don't have a 'made' hand, which players often trap at casinos. Pocket pairs come into this, and with this information, you can try to condense their hands into a pre flop range, in which I will presume the player is slightly loose.
Their perceived range can include:
22-KK
A5ss-A9ss
A7o-ATo
KJ,KQ,QJ,QTss, KTss
With this range, they have 40 (I think I counted this correctly) hands that beat you, compared to 52 various As that may also do this that you have beat, along with, say, 15 combos of bluffs (I'm trying to account for how much he does this with >A). That's 67 hands that you beat, compared to 40 that you don't. This makes it quite a clear call, given the information on this post, but this can be hard to figure out on the fly. I think the fold isn't terrible, but a call is the correct play. Thoughts are appreciated, thanks!
Only reason that I folded is if I call and lose - I am bust. On the other hand, if i fold I will have 50bbs to play with. Assuming I have an edge on the field, I don't want to end my tournament life. Thanks for the time in providing your thoughts. Appreciated
No problem, and I appreciate that it was a tough call, and can look easier on reflection. Best of luck in similar situations in the future!
Making it 5-6x here pre, and calling his shove actually only worried about A5s as anything else that you dont beat is raising pre. He has a9-a6 + a4-a2 a lot here i think. Maybe 10xDD if possible :P
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