Flop decision - $82 4-max nlh spko mtt - bubble
Posted by Nital J
Posted by
Nital J
posted in
Mid Stakes
Flop decision - $82 4-max nlh spko mtt - bubble
Blinds: t300/t600 (4 Players)
SB: 21,430
BB: 22,111 (Hero)
CO: 67,350
BN: 40,372
BB: 22,111 (Hero)
CO: 67,350
BN: 40,372
Preflop
(900)
Hero is BB with
7
3
, , ,
Flop
(3,880)
3
5
7
, , , ,
OR has been opening virtually every pot and playing uber active. SB is a decent reg. Still a loose defend, I know.
2 off bubble, and there are some icm implications given it's been a rough day.
Thoughts?
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Id have to say you jam, SB, if he is a decent reg would be doing this with a wide rang, 95% of which you beat. I know it's been a rough day, I know what it means to need that cash, and you're so close to the money, but if the SB is as decent as you think, then in reality he would make this play with such a wide range that you'd have to take the change of being outdraw by A5 or 67. It just comes to you, really. are you trying to win or cash? if you want to win, you don;t fold here without a solid read IMHO.
Those were my sentiments. Spoiler: sb had set.
SB is a decent reg that has 35 bigs and makes a 2.8x x/r on a rainbow board against a larger stack on the direct bubble. I don't expect him to have enough bluffs here, specially against two uncapped ranges on this board.
Best guess at bottom of his (value) range here?
It highly depends on the the player type. If he never has 75s/64s given how shallow he is, then his value range is narrowed enough that his x/r frequency should lean towards low to very low, specially on a board that card removal effects are as relevant as on this one. He can have AA-KK as traps sometimes but I assume it is such a low frequency play that his value betting range is likely to be 85-90% sets on this board.
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