Flat vs shove 20 players left in the double deuce
Posted by timetopop87
Posted by
timetopop87
posted in
Mid Stakes
Flat vs shove 20 players left in the double deuce
SB: 6,428,410
BB: 8,927,245 (Hero)
UTG: 5,157,747
MP: 6,593,637
CO: 16,126,690
So the villain in question i have around 150 hands on and he is a rec. He's been very active and raising often. His rfi from the co is 40% but with such a small sample and vs 2 re jam stacks this is prob not accurate and possibly somewhat tighter. I have seen him showdown 2 hands previously on this table, one where he 3x from the co and showed JJ. The other hand he open 2x from hj and showed J10s. This leads me to believe his range could be substantially weaker when he makes the 2x sizing.
So shoving here is obv +ev but is it more profitable than flatting? When we flat and catch we can have him dominated very often ( especially if he is splitting his range with the two pre flop sizings) and KQs flop amazingly. On the other hand the spr will only be 3 on the flop and when we whiff i dont know how much floating we will be able to do against an aggressive player.
I decided to shove given the sizing tell pre and because it's a very profitable shove. What do you guys think?
Average chip stack was 8,500,000 ish so i was right around average at the time.
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Definitely jamming this at a high frequency. What are Villain's overall vp/pf numbers?
30/19 but over a small sample
If those are 6max numbers, then 30/19 does not qualify as "very active and raising often" in my book. That makes me lean towards the risk-averse / ICM-aware play of just flatting here. If those are 9-max numbers, then I'm shoving for sure.
9 max and in late position. Ran the ICM calcs and it's plus $ eV with his assumed range also so I think I'm OK with it.
500 people left on the tournament this is a fist pump jam. 20 left against such a weak field I rather just call. This hand plays extremely well short stack as well, specially against wide ranges.
Thanks. after doing countless icmizer calcs when i see a super profitable 3 bet shove i just go with it, often without weighing up all options. It's something i need to work on. In this exact situation this shove will show a profit of somewhere between 1.5bb and 2bb so off only 17bb oop this is massive. I'd be interested to know how much or your usual shoving range in this exact situation you would put into your flatting range?
KQs will make >1.3bb as a flat, so it is quite close to begin with. I'm still happy to jam any pair and most Aces here.
Hey barracuda how did you calculate the 1.3bb for KQs as a flat??
Piosolver can approximately calculate it; Pokersnowie comes to a similar number through playing many hands against itself (my subscription to Snowie expired so someone else may have to check its approximation). In this case, I derived it from earlier calculations I made with Pio.
The number is an approximation; it can be off depending on how you account for ICM pressure or how the cut-off range is constructed. Of course, if you are better than your opponent postflop, the EV of calling is higher.
I just realized there are no antes in your example, so the call is probably less profitable than the 1.3bb I mention. In that case I am surprised you find such a profitable shove here, so I'm curious about your assumptions.
@Baracuda, is poker snowie good value/ is it user friendly? I regularly use a HUD but need to start reviewing hands more frequently. Is it a good starting place for $35 annually seems like an ok deal..
Im not sure why it hasn't picked up on the antes but there was an additional 300k in the pot with antes. I gave him 2 different opening ranges all with a calling off range of 8% 66+ A10s+ AJo. ( please give arguments if you think this call off range could be changed)
21% opening range is + 1.43bb
30% opening range is + 2.36bb
Another calc would be if he is splitting his range from 2x to 3x (as limited evidence suggests) and we take out the top 5% of his opening range except AA. I honestly think could be a close to accurate assessment.
25% opening range - 4.1% calling off would be + 3.3bb for KQs
If that's a read you have, stick by it. I am hesitant to make that read based on two observations, but it may be correct, in which case it is very profitable to exploit it by jamming.
That read aside, if you are jamming all pairs and most Aces here, he should be calling off wider. If he is defending correctly, he should have at least 55, A8-9s, A9-To, KJs+ here - maybe slightly tighter given the pay jump.
All that will still make KQs more +EV to jam than to call here. Whether or not the risk of busting at a weak table is worth the extra EV is a personal judgment, and I find the spot close enough to lean towards calling.
I agree he SHOULD be calling off wider however in my experience at this level a population tendency is not to shove that wide from the bb. This leads to people calling off much tighter to bb jams. Well he tanked and called with AJs and i busted do i def should have just flatted lol. Im still torn but starting to lean towards your and Raphaels approach. thanks for the advice.
I would flat, esspecialy against exact 2x sizing. Shoving hands who plays poor post seems better, Axs, ~A7o+(depends on his rfi), and pairs
I would shove too, we have a very good hand and he has fold equity to our shove
I think you could call, but we get the chance to not flop well and lose EV
In the spot you are in with ICM implications, I think a flat is definitely better.Your hand plays well postflop . I would prefer jamming pairs , my decent Axo (not done the HRC calc but allowing for multi table ICM I would guess A9o+) and flat the rest of my playable range.
Fwiw, the Pio preflop solution at this depth significantly prefers flatting KQs to jamming almost whatever (realistic) range you assign to villain.If this is the preferred option in cEV terms then this fortifies the argument of a call given the ICM factor.
"Fwiw, the Pio preflop solution at this depth significantly prefers flatting KQs to jamming almost whatever (realistic) range you assign to villain."
Interesting. If I recall correctly, my Pio runs versus cut-off were more mixed. Did you account for antes? OP mentioned in the comments that they were there, despite not showing up in the hand history.
"If this is the preferred option in cEV terms then this fortifies the argument of a call given the ICM factor."
I think this is a misconception. Flatting under ICM pressure is often less comfortable than jamming. The reason is that we face a wide range and have substantially more fold equity than usual, while we will have to fold in a lot of marginal spots postflop if we flat (not talking about this combo specifically). And we do not need to narrow our three-betting range all that much before the cut-off starts to be able to comfortably open 72o, given that we are also not flatting all that wide.
@BArracudaNL
Yes, the solution does include antes.Villain would have to be opening 40% from the CO for 3b jamming KQs to be more +cEV than flatting.
I understand and agree with the general point about being under ICM pressure if we flat too widely and have to pay a considerable risk premium post flop which of course can make a cEV flat a -$ev proposition.
But I was talking about this combo specifically in the context of this hand. It seems that KQs fits perfectly in our flatting range. If we hit top pair we can feel very comfortable, it can play well on high card/suited flops . I think there are better combos to 3bet jam which play worse postflop : a lot of the offsuit Ax combos and low pairs for example. If we jam our suited broadways as well as these other better jams then our flatting range is very weak and it is good to have some hands in our flatting range with this kind of strength.I think we get more value when the flop comes Kxx and villains think we are capped at this depth (which we are to an extent but having KQs mitigates this) and can barrel liberally either with weaker Kx or bluffs against our perceived weak range.
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