Final table spot top pair/medium kicker
Posted by jamesdmitri
Posted by
jamesdmitri
posted in
Low Stakes
Final table spot top pair/medium kicker
BB: 561,115
UTG: 128,605 (Hero)
UTG+1: 1,265,052
MP: 52,196
CO: 305,794
BN: 79,812
CO wins and shows a pair of Queens.
CO wins 321,834
Ok so I'm not very educated on icm implications but I can look at this just from an equity perspective.
I think his 3bet range in the cutoff looks something like this
I'm not sure if it should be wider or narrow to me because of stack sizes. I expect the small blind to have a wider range because he's getting such a small price to call. The cutoff makes the raise and if this was heads up i could probably find a fold but because I am getting such a small price to call and my hand has the chance to hit nutted boards i make the call. The flop comes and i expect the cutoff to bet on me with most of this range because of my small stack and icm implications so i shove. I expect the calling shove range to be something like this. With the suited hands only containing ss and the ako having a spade.
Not sure how to factor in the small blind because he is pretty likely to fold most of his range due to icm when i shove but vs this cuttoff calling range i have 40% equity. My shove if it gets called will be a pot of 321 834 with a price of 77481 meaning I will need 24% equity to profitably get my shove called. If I narrow his range to this: I still have 27% equity in this situation. The 10s have at least 1 spade in them.
So I think this was a profitable play and would like the input of everyone else. Haven't been playing for more than a month so if I have some pretty fundamental errors I would be grateful to have them explained.
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The way you have done your analysis looks great and you're definitely on the right track in your approach to solving spots like this.
However, you need to be mindful of effective stack sizes when assigning (3-bet) ranges. The CO is 3-betting your open off only 14BB, meaning that he almost certainly intends to get all-in against you with his 3-betting range. He likely doesn't expect you to open light off 14BB and therefore doesn't expect you to get it in light either; most often you will be raise/shoving against his 3-bet and he is willing to commit to an all-in against you. With that in mind, how could you construct his 3-bet range here instead?
While ICM certainly is a factor, if you shove the flop (as you did) and CO folds, SB will have to call ~77k into 244k, requiring him to only need ~22.5% equity to break even in chips. Even if he passes up some +chipEV spots due to ICM implications, he will still be able to call your flop shove pretty wide.
Additionally, if he correctly understands that CO is far more likely to 3-bet a strong range with the intention of getting it in against you as one of the short stacks, then his coldcalling range should also be considerably tighter.
Thanks for the help! Is this then clearly a fold to the preflop 3bet? Or rather is it a fold pre altogether?
Initially I would either shove or fold the hand, depending on how tight the rest of the table has been playing. As played, you get great odds to call the 3bet, but you're likely playing against strong ranges (which also often dominate your hand) and you have only very few BBs behind after calling, therefore I would fold to the 3bet.
Payouts could effect your decision but in general when you are short but their are 2 players shorter you want to be playing tighter. This is especially true when in early positions and having to bet into far larger stakes.
I don't think raising is an option given the ICM considerations. Two somewhat smaller stacks essentially means the big stacks can easily put pressure on us and force us to fold. So it is either shove or fold in this spot I think. QJs is slightly profitable as a cEV shove, so it is likely not +$EV. Since we do not have the payout structure, a clear $EV answer is not possible. All analysis I ran through HRC with a random structure though point to it being a clear fold.
If your opponents are especially tight, you might get away with a r/f. Can't see that raise/calling is a good idea ever though. You will have to fold too often on the flop losing those chips hurts us much more than the potential chips we could.
Also, there are apparently no antes. Is that correct?
Also, to further expand one what tbettingen, if CO is ICM aware he will tighten up somewhat further than in cEV spots due to the fact that BB covers him and can put him in a bad spot.
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