Final Table spot

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Final Table spot

$109 $15k Guaranteed FT, 9 people left. Avg stack 97.7k. Blinds $1500/3000 ante 500.... UTG just lost a bunch of his stack and was pretty aggressive with his 120k stack.

UTG (46,500)- Raises to 6,000
Hero in MP (75,800) TdTh- Raises to 15,500
UTG calls 9,500
Flop Jc7d6d (39,000)
UTG has 31k behind.

I looked at this in flopzilla and tried to determine the best line.
I gave him at 100% frequency KQo/KQs, KJs, AJs, QJs, QTs, ATs, KTs, A9s
I gave him at 50% frequency AQo/AQs, AJo, ATo, 99,88
I gave him at 25% frequency K9s, Q9s, T9s, J9s, KTo, QTo, KJo, QJo, A8s,A7s,A6s, A5s

These are based on what i expect a range of opponents with this guys style to play like. I think he opens about 18-20% in this spot, its just a matter of what he calls the 3b with and what he decides to shove over my 3b.

This gives us 57.8% versus his range, and having the best hand 69.079% of the time.
He has top pair 28.6% of time, and Ace high/no made hand 60% (9.5% of these hands have flush draws).

What is the best line versus this range?

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