Fedor (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves?

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Fedor (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves?

Hi, I am reviewing some of these Fedor vids and typing hands into my ICM machine and there have been a few spots where Fedor should have been able to shove any two cards at equilibrium (IE I am running into spots where Fedor is missing shoves that are unexploiteable) So who is right the GOAT ICM software (ICMIZER) or the GOAT donkament player (Fedor Holz)?

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Le_Cho 6 years, 11 months ago

THESE FORUMS SUCK. WHY DO I EVEN PAY FOR A RIO SUB?

Samu Patronen 6 years, 11 months ago

Nobody is entitled to receive comments on their posts, that is completely up to people to decide whether or not they want to take time and write a comment. This is especially the case with posts that require people to know the specifics of the post in order to contribute to the discussion in any useful way.

So like Pierre suggested, perhaps you'd like to share some of these spots you're talking about.

And in the future, if you have criticism towards the site, feel free to criticize, but in a more constructive manner please.

Pierre 6 years, 11 months ago

Really hard to give an appropriate answer without specific examples.
ICM is a somewhat easy concept to understand, but IMO the human brain just cannot apprehend the infinite amount of situations and solutions ICM can bring one to.
I would not be surprised to see the very top players making some slight ICM mistakes, even if they have a very good understanding of it and can have a good guess at all situations.
On the other hand he might just have some exploitative reads in certain situations, or consider his edge on other players is high enough to not take some slightly +EV spots.

A couple things to consider:

  • FGS (stand for Future Game Simulations): it's a sort of 'improved' ICM in that takes into account the stack situations for future hands. More dynamic and accurate.
    To give you a basic example: let's say you are 4left in a tourney, you have 100bb, two of your opponents have 25bb each, the last player has 3bb. Nash equilibrium and ICM will probably tell you to shove any 2 in a BvB spot against the short stack, but on the other hand, you may want to fold a good amount of hands in this specific situation: you are allowing the shortstack to survive, which gives you more room and opportunity to bully the middle stacks who are under huge ICM pressure.

    • You can make exploitative adjustments against players who are not enough ICM aware. Sure you may have an any two shove spot in a specific situation, but if Villain is calling too light for instance, he is giving away both some of his EV... but also YOURS - to the profit of remaining players at the table.

Feel free to post specific examples so we can discuss it further and try to understand better.

Lucas Greenwood 6 years, 11 months ago

Its hard to comment without specific examples, but its possible the ICM models don't include FGS, Fedor thinks his opponents will call wider than ICM (fairly common in spots where ICM dictates players need to call very tight).

Its also just possible that fedor missed profitable shoves, or thought a limp/small raise wouldn't get played back at often enough so its a better option with a number of his weak hands.

Ivanaddiction 6 years, 11 months ago

When using ICM or FGS, more often than not, as a middle/shorter stack when I adjust villain/s calling ranges, from nash to what are normally wider ranges. I always find myself having to shove very tight.

This makes sense of course but I was wondering if you think we should stand by our adjusted very tight shoving ranges as ICM nash ranges alone are normally pretty tight as is? I get that we dont want to rely entirely on ICM or FGS, what would be the biggest factor for you to make an exception?

I personally use FGS 1 for the most part. When ICM is very strong, STT, sattelites, would you recommend using regular ICM or FGS?

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