Facing big river bet with a medium strength hand
Posted by ZlotZ
Posted by
ZlotZ
posted in
Low Stakes
Facing big river bet with a medium strength hand
MP: 267,350
UTG+1: 168,154
MP+1: 216,132
CO: 270,016
BN: 197,302 (Hero)
SB: 143,722
BB: 320,610
SB wins 150,720
This is the PokerStars Big $7.50 with 24 players left.
I'd appreciate analysis on all streets, specially the river.
My own thoughts:
Pre-flop: standard button open. In my reads, the SB calling range pre-flop is small/medium pairs, broadway suited cards, sometimes QKo and AJo/ATo.
Flop: I checked back on the flop because I wanted to pot control having top pair with a medium kicker and no imminent danger on the board, but maybe it would've been correct to bet to get value from middle pairs and to cash out my equity vs Ax and Kx hands.
Turn: His 1 bb bet means nothing to me, he could be doing it with the entirety of his range. I just call because I want to pot control.
River: His range is polarized and I have a bluff-catcher. Having thought about it more, I believe I should have folded. Although he could have some bluffs in his range, we are losing to 22, 66, KQ, AQ, KJss, KTss, TJss, that seems like a lot of combos that are on his range. And I didn't have any special reads on the guy to indicate he would fire a big river bluff out of nowhere like this.
Thanks for the feedback!
Loading 5 Comments...
I think you should be betting the flop. Like you say, you want to get value from pocket pairs and not let hands like Kx and Ax realise equity.
I don't care too much about balance in low stakes MTTs, but I think checking a hand this strong isn't great for balance either. You're only betting very strong Qx, sets and overpairs for value, while you're probably betting all your air on this flop.
I agree with your analysis on the turn.
I agree with your river analysis as well and think a fold is best. I think I talk myself into a call too much in spots like this as well.
I think we have to bet the flop as SB has a huge range of callable hands here. In addition a lot of the hands we lose to most likely 3b Pre with 25BB stacks against a mere button raise (AA,KK, QQ AQ, KQs, 66, 22 sometimes)
Turn is fine
River: While I do think you're right that it is a fold, I don't think it really is a bluff catcher. There are plenty of Q's you beat and some A's may bet this as well as you really haven't shown any semblance of a Q, you look like you are representing more of a mid pair or an Ace high (by checking the flop) that got there on the turn.
If you bet the flop and he called and the hand played the same, it's a much easier fold as a pot sized bet would be basically for stacks or close to it.
Lol I basicaly wrote the same before read this.
Good stuff
If you bet flop bet turn you might be able to get away on the river. As played your hand is so underrepped and looks like Ax and 77--JJ. If he is a supernit maybe you can fold river but it open you jo to get really exploited against aggressiv opponents imo. Im at the top of my range, so I would call and prey for a bluff:p
I agree we should bet flop to get value from all the smaller pocket pairs in villain's range. It also helps us define villain's range a bit more accurately, and eliminate their air hands.
I think when we check back flop then we probably have to call river. This might not apply when we're this deep in the tourney (as villain is likely a competent player), but at these stakes I think lots of villains will double barrel their air when we check flop, as they'll think we have a very wide range and will perceive us as weak.
Villain's much less likely to take this line if we bet flop IMO.
I'm a real noob though - only just started trying to take poker more seriously and stop button clicking - so I might be way off. Please don't crucify me! :p
Be the first to add a comment