Estrellas Main cold 4b spot
Posted by Sascha
Posted by
Sascha
posted in
High Stakes
Estrellas Main cold 4b spot
Not sure if this qualifies for high stakes, please move if it doesn't.
Estrellas 1.1k Main Event. Blinds 100/500/1000. Table is currently 8-handed. We sit on a stack of 107k. Table just witnessed us showing down AA in a relatively large 3b pot, when we squeezed an utg1 open and mp flat from the HJ. Our image with the players involved is tight and clean - I've spewed before though :D
On to the hand: Tight HJ openraises to 2.2k from a 26k stack, he looks weak though as if he is trying to steal from the very tight blinds, who both have around 12-14bb.
New Player in CO 3b to 5.8k. He is ~70bb deep. We notice his shaking hands and see 88 after checking our hand. We take a look at stack sizes in front and behind and 4b to 12.8k since reads and its such a sweet spot (imo).
Obv im happy to get it in vs the blinds and will fold if CO piles. I'm aware CO committed himself against the.blinds and hence.cant be too light. However, I think we can make a lot of hands fold HJ and CO might have that either have us crushed or we'd flip against, i.e. not sure if I'd pile AK in COs shoes.
Appreciate your thoughts on this spot and also 4b sizing.
Cheers
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Don't love it. I would read the shaky hands as a sign of strength if anything, of course with no baseline it can't be much of a read. This is a weird little spot and I'm not sure what I would do. Folding, Flatting and 4-betting could all be reasonable depending on players and reads.
I assume you're on the button here?
Flatting gives you the option to GII against the blinds or the original opener, and to set mine against the 3-bettor.
Since he's new to the table, you could give him credit and just fold here as well.
If he flats, you won't like a lot of flops, and although you'll have position, you can lose a big pot. If he only jams or folds, you're hoping he folds 50% of his range to make money. I really don't know about 4-betting, maybe I'm just not super comfortable with it, but this spot does not scream 4-bet to me.
I could be way off, but I think I like fold>flat>4b here. Would be curious to hear more analysis.
Std fold. 99 is much closer, but TT+, AK and some KQ/QJ bluffs fits better.
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