Does he ever raise worse here?

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Does he ever raise worse here?

Blinds: t20/t40 (8 Players) BB: 1,819 (Hero)
UTG: 2,746
UTG+1: 3,525
MP: 2,924
MP+1: 2,919
CO: 2,383
BN: 2,829
SB: 3,261
Preflop (60) Hero is BB with 9 9
2 folds, MP raises to 92, 3 folds, SB calls 72, Hero calls 52
Flop (316) 8 A 2
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets 95, SB folds, Hero calls 95
Turn (506) 8 A 2 9
Hero bets 248, MP calls 248
River (1,002) 8 A 2 9 T
Hero bets 520, MP raises to 2,484 and is all in, Hero calls 859 and is all in
Final Pot BB lost and shows three of a kind, Nines.
MP wins and shows a flush, King high.
MP wins 3,760

A poor spot with trips on the river. Thinking back he rarely raises worse than trips on river. Should I always fold here? Can I play 99 any other way here?

8 Comments

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newearthling 7 years, 4 months ago

Like ZeroDegrees I would like a check on the turn better.

With your bet you scare out worse hands - let him bet again and just call.

Then you can decide on the river depending on the board (giving up when a fourth diamont appears), if you wanna go for a small value bet (bet/fold).

As played I think your beat to his 3bet on the river most of the times.

ricardoscr 7 years, 4 months ago

Bet on the flop and check/call on the turn. I think it is better.

newearthling 7 years, 4 months ago

And then call down the river as well?
What if a diamont appears?

You scare away a lot of worse hands by betting the flop and risk being rivered by one card diamont hands by only checking the turn then...

Richiegone 7 years, 1 month ago

Their is 500ish in pot on turn and on On turn you have 1600 left bet close to pot around 425 and then you will have 1175 to shove into a 1350 pot on the river.
You perhaps have the bottom of your value betting hands but betting larger makes it easier for AK, Aq etc with AD to call both streets. U also get called by smaller sets and 2 pair.
This size also open the door to some bluffs entering your range.
Just because u lost to a flush on this occasion u should still be looking to get your whole stack into play here.

felipejay 7 years, 1 month ago

i liked the lead turn, because you can exploit his draws range and others mid values, checking turn is ok but imo he'll check behind very often and realize his equity for free.

But river i think you should bet/fold most of times, i won't say his always have value here bc if he's a good player, he can transform his Ad into a bluff, but since micro stakes players don't do that very often, i like to fold here but you should always be looking to who you're playing with before just fold.

Other thing is, you could check/call river after he calls, but imo you'll be losing value from a lot of hands that gonna check behind but still can call a river bet.

a_zuzolo 7 years ago

I agree with a lot of the points made above. Felipejay makes some good points about player tendencies definitely coming into play here.

But I agree that leading turn and check/calling turn are both viable options.

I think as played, and at a small stakes tournament, that the river is a fold.

a_zuzolo 7 years ago

One other thing to consider, that hasn't been brought up yet, is what bluffs we can possibly have when leading this turn?

On a flop like A 8 2 with two diamonds, I assume most players have very bluffs that they will take a check/call flop, then lead turn line with.

Just something to be aware of, and that may lean us towards a check/call being more desirable here.

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