(Discuss) Real EV in MTTs, rebuys compared to regular tournaments.

Posted by headao

Posted by headao posted in High Stakes

Posted 9 years, 9 months ago

(Discuss) Real EV in MTTs, rebuys compared to regular tournaments.

I recently spent a bit of time thinking about the real ROI and variance in MTTs. This led me to compare a few profit graphs and the difference in ROI of some highstake MTT regs (some of the best) between regular and rebuy tournies.

Here are a couple of graphs (obv keeping anonymous nick names).

REG 1:

Rebuy tournies

Regular tournies

REG 2:

Rebuy tournies

Regular tournies

As you can see, there is a huge difference between the consistence of the graphs and profit per game. Taking into account the system that Sharkscope adopts, regarding rebuy tournaments (sharkscopes uses avg. rebuy in tournament), I came to the conclusion that these regs must be making more rebuys than the average, which consequently dont appear on the graphs.

I feel that it is not possible to have such a small edge in regular tournaments while having a really big edge in rebuy tournaments.

REGULAR - REG 1 - $7 profit per game, ABI $90, 7.7% ROI
REBUYS - REG 1 - $56 profit per game, ABI $140, 39% ROI

REGULAR - REG 2 - $0.8 profit per game, ABI $99, 0.8% ROI
REBUYS - REG 2 - $31.4 profit per game, ABI $130, 24% ROI

What do you guys think about this?

(It also works for lower buy-ins)

Thanks

9 Comments

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PepeLePew 9 years, 9 months ago

Well either they have terrible game selection and should clearly stop playing FO tournaments or your read on how SS accounts for rebuys seems correct. It's not always easy to extrapolate a ton of stuff from results. Do you know these regs? Are they particularly LAG or would you have a reason to think they would more or less follow the "rebuy until you have 5x average" strategy in rebuys? I definitely agree with you that the disparity between the FO and rebuy results on these samples is a tough sell with this sample size... Do you have any idea what the average rebuy value tends to be? If we know we can find how much we need to skew them from the mean for their rebuy results to be in the same ballpark as the rest, should give some idea of how realistic that is.

bolengo 9 years, 9 months ago

did you choose this regs very carefully for the thread? if you do have a good sample of regs thats have graphs that look exaclty like this, i dont think theres nothing to be discussed. you might have nailed it.

i cant think of anything useful about this. great observation tho.

SPrince 9 years, 9 months ago

+1
How many of good regulars graphs did you check out that match this criteria (post some more / some mid stakes guys as well if possible) ?

ZenFish 9 years, 9 months ago

Sample size issues aside, a simple observation: Rebuying keeps you longer in the game and your skills have more opportunities to get used. Good players benefit from that.

It would be interesting to compile a longer list of some winners.

PepeLePew 9 years, 9 months ago

This is definitely true, but I don't think it accounts for the night and day difference in graphs. I mean... those rebuy graphs look like SNGs which doesn't seem right to me, specially given the FO graphs. In any case, if these graphs are entirely accurate I don't understand why anyone with this run would bother with FOs whatsoever. Just open accounts on more rooms and print money variance-free on rebuys no?

headao 9 years, 9 months ago

First, sorry about my english. One friend helped me with the english on OP, now without him things can be little difficult to understand, hahaha.

I agree with you, but i feel that in a rebuy tournament, the late game, where you can have a bigger $ edge, will be more reg infested (because regs kills fishs earlier than in a FO) and "no one" will be throwing much $EV away. In FOs u dont have the advantage of keeping more time in the tournament, but its easier to find a fish in late game throwing much $EV away.

So, in rebuys tournaments you win some by staying more in the tournament, but lose some by having a tougher field on late game.

That makes sense?

As i said on another post, this week a will compile more graphs, :)

Thanks !

YoH_ViraL 9 years, 9 months ago

the differences between the rebuy graph profit and the regular graph profit is mostly because ALL the rebuys we take arent count by SHARKSCOPE. SO LOL.