Correct EV calculation of shove spot?
Posted by Synapse
Posted by Synapse posted in Mid Stakes
Correct EV calculation of shove spot?
Hi,
I was hoping to clear up how to calculate EV of bet/shove. I realize general definition of EV is sum of all outcomes multiplied by associated probabilities, but I get confused if I should be subtracting the bet/shove so as to not over-emphasize EV.
Here is an ex. of mtt hand I played:
Blinds are 250/500, 50 ante.
Hero has 8.5k. in HJ with A 7s.
EP raises 1.1k and fish on my right flats. They both have about 14k. To simplify things, assume fish and everyone else will fold except EP if Hero jams.
EP opening range: (99+,AQ+)
EP call vs shove range: (TT+,AK)
EV of Jam:
33 combos of pairs, after card removal
32 combos of AQ+, after card removal
call % = (43/65)
EV: (3450)(22/65) + (43/65)[(.25)(20450)-(.7)(8500)] =
1167.69 + (43/65)[5112.5-5950] = 613.65 gain on the jam.
Also, for interpretation is a 1.25bb gain/jam in this spot massive, or not?
The range assumptions aren't important, is this EV calculation correct?
Thanks for your help guys.
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