I'm the chip leader 1/21 at this stage. MP has been limping a lot. I have stats for him from other games and over 280 hands he's 30/9 and he has limp/called with K5s,73s,AJo,KQo and QTo. I decide to check back the flop since he has a fold to cbet of 42% and I think this flop hits him in some way with either pairs (Tx,9x,), straight draws, including gutshots, and flush draws. I think the K on the turn is a great card to bet as he folds a lot of his hands that have no equity (about 50% according to Equilab) and only continues with the same range I talked about on the flop (which might make a flop cbet better). When the river comes I think that he will only call with his Kx and maybe Tx hands. I guess he could have QJ, but would guess he'd bet that on the river, so I think he only calls with Kx and maybe Tx. My bet on the river only has to work about 26% of the time and I think I can get him to fold his 9x hands and missed draws - the thing is that my AQ is good against his missed draws most of the time. So I'm thinking that maybe this bluff isn't good if I'm only trying to get him to fold the 9x hands (and possibly worse pairs like 33-88). According to Equilab the 9x hands in his range that make it to the river account for 36.8% so our bet is definitely profitable.

I guess my other question is if the bluff here is worth it since we're the chip leader and there are easier spots to pick up chips than trying to second guess whether this player will fold Tx,9x.

Do you prefer a different line like bet/check/check since he's never folding, or is check/bet/bet better, or check/bet/check? What about checking all the way?

I think that the bluff is profitable from a cEV perspective, but when it doesn't work we throw away a large % of our tournament equity.

PokerStars - $3.19+$0.31|2000/4000 Ante 400 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 26,469
BB: 40,348
UTG: 12,860
UTG+1: 19,468
MP: 59,734
Hero (CO): 99,181
BTN: 37,856

7 players post ante of 400, SB posts SB 2,000, BB posts BB 4,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 8,800) Hero has Ad Qh
fold, fold, MP calls 4,000, Hero raises to 12,000, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 8,000

Flop : (32,800, 2 players) 2s Tc 9c
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn : (32,800, 2 players) Kd
MP checks, Hero bets 14,040, MP calls 14,040

River : (60,880, 2 players) Kh
MP checks, Hero bets 44,000, MP calls 33,294 and is all-in