Check or Double Barrel turn?
Posted by Tdogger88
Posted by
Tdogger88
posted in
Low Stakes
Check or Double Barrel turn?
Blinds: t25/t50 (9 Players)
CO: 4,563
BN: 2,379
SB: 4,206
BB: 4,103
UTG: 1,278
UTG+1: 4,678
MP: 1,258
MP+1: 901
MP+2: 2,209 (Hero)
BN: 2,379
SB: 4,206
BB: 4,103
UTG: 1,278
UTG+1: 4,678
MP: 1,258
MP+1: 901
MP+2: 2,209 (Hero)
Played very few pots with this guy, he seemed solid enough. The only recent one was with my SB and his BB, I opened AJo, he flatted and the flop came Qhigh 2-tone. I cbet, he flatted, turn added a second flush draw, I check/folded. I felt gross after it, could very easily have just been a float but I thought about not having any history with this guy, maybe let that one go.
Preflop
(75)
Hero is MP+2 with
J
K
, , ,
Flop
(329)
A
J
5
,
Turn
(789)
A
J
5
9
What range do we put him on here? He could definitely have an ace, but probably not a very strong one. Flush draws call flop, as do broadways with a heart, but I have the K. Do we x/c, b/f?
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I think OTT I'd rather bet a hand like KhT or QhT and c/c with KhJ (and c/f OTR if I don't improve).
I like checking just to keep variance down, but if perhaps CO bets, I'm raising 100% of the time. I know it sounds like a strong line, and is, but you block the nuts as well as getting value from inferior hands like Ax, KQ, other KJ and QJ hands that lead turn in position when checked to. It's not to say that the big stack doesn't peel one with hands like 88, 99, TT just to make a play in position as well. Now a small % of the time he has flushes, and a fair amount of time he has AJ (which might continue if you c/r turn but should get folds a fair amount of time or enough to make the play profitable). I think overall checking is best option as betting entices shoves or huge raises a lot and you don't want that in this spot.
I hadn't even considered check-raising here! With a pot of 790, I think it's safe to assume CO usually makes a bet of around 580 in position. So if we go with the x/r I would think the best size would be a shove, anything else leaves us committed with no fold EQ and with the shove we'd have to be good 58% of the time. Given that, what range of hands could we have that would make that move? Made flushes could very reasonably do that, as well as flush draws with a pair and combo draws. Because of the flop action, I don't think we have any outs that aren't live, so any heart, K or J should give us the pot. With those 14-12 outs (possibly 12 because CO may have a made flush) we have 30.4%-27%, so we need to be able to fold out approx. 31% of COs range to be profitable. I'm not actually sure if this is reasonable in this spot... Thoughts?
I think once he calls the check raise you never have enough equity. If we think about the range that calls a c/r here a K may not be a clean out considering Q10 with a heart is now a nice hand on OTT. More importantly you have the blocker to the nut draw which discounts most of the calling range we are ahead of.although i think it could be wider than you think because of the turn card. Something like; A10o,AJ,A5,A9, J5,J9, 55,99, Q10h,Qh10 ,QhJ,QJh,QJhh, Q10hh,10h8, 10h8h,6h7h,7h8h. So basically a combo draw or a hand that beats us. we are 35% against this range.
This is obviously player dependant but i think its reasonable considering he is in late position with a bigger stack, you don't always have a flush here when you shove. Against this range you have
His whole betting range probably looks similar to that plus Ax, maybe 1010, 88. Its not a great card to stab at with no equity.
There are definately player i would want to bet/get it in or check shove but with little to no read I think its rash.
I think i would go ahead and bet here, something around the 290-330 mark. Which gives room to fold to a raise.
Taken into account the earlier hand where he bets the turn it is similar as the turn gives a second draw again. If floating the flop to stab the turn was a tendency i spotted it could tip this to a CRAI but one hand isn't enough and the hand before was BVB which is a very different scenario.
As an after-thought- betting also leaves your range uncapped which is an advantage we lose over villain as soon as we check.
I think i would go ahead and bet here, something around the 290-330 mark. Which gives room to fold to a raise. ....
This plus we keep deception and uncapedness on river when we bet turn. I don't want to be in the habit of firing flop and then checking turn when we pick up nut equity honestly just in general too.
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