+cEV marginal situations, when to take them?
Posted by piterlanguila
Posted by piterlanguila posted in Mid Stakes
+cEV marginal situations, when to take them?
Hello, according to HRC ranges, how do you follow those? Do you tighten up you ranges ? Im talking about close spots where +cEV is low, how many +cEV would you consider that it's worth to take the risk?
Example of spot:
We are on the ft bubble 100$ BI
Blinds 2/4K/500
UTG (150K)
BTN(100K)
SB(37K)
HERO(130K)
UTG raise 8000, BTN flats 8000, SB who is a bad player shoves for 37k and Hero pick up JJ.
UTG was playing very nitty, and BTN is almost never trapping here.
I established a 7% OR for the UTG guy (88+,AJo+,ATs+), 10% of flatting range for the btn including broadways and 55-TT and the SB GII with 55+ A8s+ ATo+
So I ran the numbers on HRC, and it shows a profit of +0.30 cEV if we give him that very tight range, border hand.
But if we give him 10% range, (77+, ATo, KJo) it becomes a +2.07 cEV so now it's more clearly a shove.
The thing is, as we all already know, we never have enough hands from a villain playing mtts to accurate their open raising ranges, but hoow we may do our best? Woud you think they'll be opening wider than it or would you play more conservative ?
And, how would you consider it's enough +cEV to take the risk?
Thank you guys!
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