Carbon $215 Final Table, 6-handed, pf spot, ICM

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Carbon $215 Final Table, 6-handed, pf spot, ICM

Payouts: $11000/7200/5000/3600/2700/2100

Stacks:
LJ: (me) 302k
HJ:155
CO: 285
BTN: 241
SB: 686
BB: 326

Blinds 4/8k+800

I open to 18k, folds to SB who makes it 48k, folds back to me. My price is about 78k to 30k.

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Spoiler: I bust this hand in not so great fashion. I find myself lost on how to continue with various parts of my range. Which hands should I fold, flat, and 4b.

Current table: CO is an overly tight regular, BTN is a passive player who is a bit stationy, everyone else plays reasonable. SB and BB have been playing a ton of pots together.

I'm not especially interested in what's correct vs this specific player. I'm interested in what's correct vs various 3b ranges so the discussion has value in future spots.

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Scenarios:

Assume he 3b/calls off with AK/TT/AQs (3.8%)

How would you continue with your range...
1) Vs 8% 3b
2) Vs 12% 3b
3) Vs 16% 3b
4) Vs 20% 3b

Any discussion welcome.

As far as our opening range, anything between 15-20% seems reasonable to me.

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I will mention that if he's never bluffing and always calling with the mentioned 3.8% of hands, ICM says to only shove KK+. A hand like AQo would lose $1430 in EV.

On the other extreme, If his 3b% is 20% with 3b/call of 3.8%, then we can shove all our opening hands profitably, but our profits are small. With a hand as strong as AQo, we'd make a relatively meager $173.

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