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Can we fold this?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Can we fold this?

Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (1,200/2,400 blinds, 300 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
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MP3: 175,307 (73 bb)
CO: 97,440 (40.6 bb)
BTN: 164,399 (68.5 bb)
SB: 103,069 (42.9 bb)
BB: 189,038 (78.8 bb)
UTG+1: 110,788 (46.2 bb)
UTG+2: 114,763 (47.8 bb)
MP1: 38,765 (16.2 bb)
Hero (MP2): 351,908 (146.6 bb)

Hero is MP2 with KdKh
3 folds,Hero raises to 5,280, 3 folds,SB raises to 14,500,BB raises to 23,720

about 300 left of 9k entrants in a 22$ tourney...sb is 23/20/5/2...bb is 29/20/4/0.3
can we make a stupid?? fold here to preserve our stack?

1 Comment

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GameTheory 11 years, 11 months ago
Normally this is a good spot to 4-bet light, but if he 3-bets 4% over a significant sample it gets close.
How big is this sample, I would need a big sample and 3-4-bet stats in various positions and strong read to fold here. This read would need to play that he plays QQ/AK slow here with a high probability.
It is only half your stack and you will still have a very playable stack even if you lose, no reasons to start with stack perserving nittyness if the cEV is too large.

Barring such reads this is an easy 35200/call.

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