Can one know...
Posted by computerscreen
Posted by
computerscreen
posted in
Low Stakes
Can one know...
if one has been outplayed, if one played one's best to one's own knowledge?
I see many player say things such as "They out played me in that spot"
Is this possible to observe?
I suspect it is not.
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If opponent shows cards you can draw conclusions, such as that you could maybe played spot better ?
Yes, it obviously is.
Here is one example of a spot where I was outplayed a while ago by another regular. This is from 6 max PLO cash game, but the concept should transfer well enough to a tournament.
I was on the river with to weak pairs, some draws had missed, and I checked to opponent who then bet.
Now I could call, fold or raise.
I thought about it for at least 15 seconds, and came to the conclusion that villain might valuebet two good pairs, some weirdly slowplayed sets (which was basicly nuts), and then probably would bluff a certain % of the times, with his missed draws and other stuff. I figured the range of hands who he would legitimately valuebet was not big enough to counter the times I would expect a regular of his caliber to bluff, so I called.
He showed to (bad) pairs, something like K4xx on AK943, and won the pot. I did not expect him to valuebet that light, and therefore the range that I put him on was wrong, and he probably outplayed me.
I played the hand to my best knowledge, but after the hand was done, I saw that I had flaws in my "best knowledge" of this regular.
Plo is something I am not at all familiar with. But as long as in your example villain is better than you or better than you in that spot. And K4xx is a proper hand to show up with in that situation. But we have to remember it is a game of ranges and strategies not hands.
preraise AK flop k , pot it flop pot turn and get shved allin~ think abt it a minute and fold~ to be showed 6 high for total bluff~ ye~ its outplaying i thinks
This will relate to another fundamental I think, did this player out play us? Or did they just win the chips? We mustn't look at their hand but instead their overall range and overall strategy. Shoving for a total bluff with little equity is rarely a good play.
umm..is friend who played and made decision, i woulda called :S and isnot from my being bluffed perspective, i think such plays as general lines are EV plus and outplaying, you see flop with suit connect which isnt unwise preflop decision if pot isnot 4-5 betted, person will rarely hit A or K flop anyway so u can safely float, and when person dos hit well and 2 barrels, will have huge trouble calling off xr allin~ with TPTK ..most playrs are too nitt for that, so person calling off xr will usually hav 2 p or better, which is very unlikely, so times u win up to over 80 percent to times u actually lose ur stack ,
What you describe Aleks is by no means a given "outplayed spot". If villain only bluffs there 1% of the time, and hero does not have enough equity to call versus villains range on average, hero played it perfectly.
hmm..i was playing that hand with a friend, actually he was playing i was commenting, i said it is excellnt xr spot for lag u gotta call, he said no no..so we actually were arguing on spot, and he folded when opponent showed somethin like 6 high
so i guess he did played it perfectly cause u do agree on fold, my view is that hes been outplayed by making his range face up and playing that hand by too standard playline thats so easy exploitable
arguments tho are for otehrwise as well, maybe not great example
will try think of otehr example
Yup you're arguing that 6 high won the chips tho, but the 6 high player definitely seems like they played bad.
he called from bb to defend bb sitconnect 56 ss or 45ss, and could guess i think properly range against him, and i think intentional calling flop where obv it hit the bettor range to shove turn with lot of fold equity, cause rarely tag and solid player would call off with TPTK isnot EV minus long run, but contrary and can be seen as outplay line imo ( as u seen , slihtblinder would fold as well and maybe u 2? ), so if he estimates fold equity to be up to 80 percent plus times he wins bets on 2 streets i think is huge ev plus and not moment chips :S
i don't think you are accounting for the times they shove into our nut hands and spew their stack.
yup happens, i took that in account , long run EV should be positive
he should win 2 pot bets 80 percent of time and 20 percent of time lose stack
Are you suggesting that calling oop with a weak hand, floating the flop, and check shoving air without reads is a good idea?
isnt what im suggesting, u make decisions when u are in hand, and that i think was a good play after flop with total miss on K high dry board
I think you are def suggesting it is the superior play, did i get the actions wrong?
well..is kinda superior to standard tag play, debatable tho im sure
If its debatable can you decide that you got out played?
imo is outplay and superior play but anyone thinking otherwise may stand good argument for such stand im sure
I think from your perspective as the 'folder' it seems the bluffer is 'outplaying' because it seems +ev. But from the bluffers position, floating with air and check/jamming air is not going to 'outplay' anyone.
but rereading posing question , player played it at best of his ability, so its difficult for persn who played its best to say ive been outplayed cause person did best he she it knows, so by default cant comprehend the outplay line
tho i think there re certain spots where we comprehend we made a mistake play line and i think its possible to observe the leak in our own game and what s so good line that opponent made, if we re thinking about game nonstop
I recall is spot i noticed a 2 month ago i think, is certain type of players who wouldnt fold a cbet but float and lead turn, i started noticing play line and took me lil time to adjust to that, by xr the turn lead often by particular player type
its the spot we start to notice we re playing exploitably, we start to observe it and rethink what to do in spot
that moment is moment i think that u can call~ noticing u have been outplayed
Yes I think you understood the question well in your first paragraph. To come back 2 months later when you are more knowledgeable and to re evaluate the hand is a different though I think ;)
This is a silly, albeit interesting question. I'll stand my ground and say that it is obviously possible to observe yourself being outplayed. If I play football versus Ronaldo, and get raped, figuratively speaking, I obviously understand I have been outplayed. This is a physical sport, you might say.
Well, if I play Chess versus Magnus Karlsen, and he has me mated after 15 moves, or whatever number is an appropriate one, I will again obviously understand that I have been outplayed. No matter how hard I "played as best I could".
It will be the same with poker, unless you are a stubborn 2+2-mongering fool. If villain makes a move you would not suspect him to make (thereby making his actual range differ from his percieved range) and thereby earning him a +EV move, and you a -EV move, you have been outplayed.
With poker even, there is more information to hold after the hand is done, and it should therefore be even more easy to understand what you did wrong, or what he did better.
Another hand history example:
UTG opens, and I'm on the BTN with A876ds. We are 450bb deep, and I (for some reason) decide to 3bet. He timebanks, and then calls.
Flop A66r. He checks, I cbet and he puts in a small raise.
Now; I know villain, and he opens tight from UTG, so A66r should not really hit his "calling a 3bet-range" at all. I figure he might do this with some rundowns with a 6 in them, maybe a hand similar to mine, but I also figure he might actually fold some of those hands to my 3bet, since we are so deep, and he has to worry about negative implied odds. And I know he is capable of bluffing, and that this might not be such a bad spot to make a small bluff.
Further, I figure that the best way to make money in this spot is making another min-raise, since I figure calling will look so rediculously strong.
He then pot-raises/or shoves or whatever the potsize will be in this spot, and I figure "well, potsize + my handstrength it can't be a bad call versus the range I have given him".
He then shoves AA45ss, which he preferred to call with preflop, rather then bloating the pot OOP with "marginal" aces, and probably giving his hand away. I did not put AAxx in his range on the flop, no matter how fucking hard or good I tried. His range is therefore totally different than what I thought it was. I can obviously SEE that, since I have eyes, and the cards are right there in front of me. And since I'm not a 2+2-mongering fool, my brain is able to comprehend that he did, in fact, outplay me.
As for your example of PLO, we should look at ranges and overall strategy to find out who made what mistakes I think right?
With poker it comes down to ranges, yes, in my opinion. And especially percieved versus actual range. There must be some game between chess and poker (with regards to % of information open), which is a "mind game" which I am not aware of, or which I'm currently forgetting, where my logic also holds water (?).
Perhaps the card-game casino, where my mom used to outplay me when I was young, and I only understood what mistakes I had made, after I had made them, thereby observing myself being outplayed.
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