Call or not?

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Call or not?

Blinds: t1,250/t2,500 (6 Players) CO: 66,192 (Hero)
BN: 15,156
SB: 38,292
BB: 43,992
UTG: 84,672
MP: 54,696
Preflop (3,750) Hero is CO with A Q
UTG raises to 5,625, MP folds, Hero raises to 15,750, 3 folds, UTG calls 10,125
Flop (37,050) 2 9 7
UTG checks, Hero bets 16,000, UTG raises to 68,622 and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot UTG wins 69,050

Hi everybody,

This is a final table hand, villain a kind of tight aggressive profile. If it wasn't a final table hand I think I would have called the all-in or reshove preflop but I didn't want to bust in 6th place.
Maybe villain could have 10-10 or J-J. In this case I have favorable pot odds to make the call. It is unlikely he can bluff in this spot and maybe he would have 4bet all in preflop with Q-Q+.
What do you think? And what is the relation between pot odds, stack to pot ratio and ICM? Can we fold a hand with favorable pot odds for ICM considerations?

6 Comments

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maxii89 4 years, 4 months ago

I think that you are really underestimating the ICM on Final Tables. First of all, look ath the stack size distribution on FT. Literally you can finish 2 place in this tournamnet. This exact hand is a clean ICM suicide. Look at the BTN short stack zice of 6BB. He is absolutely happy to see other two biggest stacks colliding with each other and earning money for him. Your job is to climb the Final table ladder not putting your chips at this huge risk.
People being at risk at FT is a very + EV for you.
at FT Chips gained are less valuable than chips lost.

Gae80 4 years, 4 months ago

Thanks for your comment maxii89.
Do you think it would have been better flat preflop and fold the flop then?
Yes, I think I underestimate ICM factor and played this spot too aggressively. I should have definitely played more cautiously against the chip leader.

maxii89 4 years, 4 months ago

I guess that 3bet pre is not bad we have a Ablocker which blocks UTG opening range, you put some pressure on UTG opener, weak range would have folded for your 3bet, but if your 3bet is called by UTG tight aggressive player, then it shows us a super strong range and you should be very cautious in exact scenario.

Fredje 4 years, 3 months ago

as a general rule in ICM heavy spots like this one, just play very passive. It sucks but you can't risk your stack when the likelihood of laddering is big. That also means staying away from pots with big stacks that know how to play them aggressively.

aramsay 4 years, 3 months ago

AQs super easy hand to play in position after just flatting. Keeps his dominated opening range in, maybe even get to over flush villain or MP,SB,BB if they decide to take a flop. I would guess villain should be opening 25% of hands in that spot and it sucks to let him take a flop with that weak of a range, but ICM should dictate that: call > fold > 3-betting.

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