Call or fold our Top set vs Vilain ReShove
Posted by Asvin
Posted by
Asvin
posted in
Low Stakes
Call or fold our Top set vs Vilain ReShove
Hero (UTG): 37.92 BB
UTG+1: 31.58 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
MP: 59.8 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
CO: 36.36 BB (VPIP: 19.80, PFR: 16.48, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 102)
BTN: 27.06 BB (VPIP: 5.41, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
SB: 48.36 BB (VPIP: 25.24, PFR: 21.24, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 215)
BB: 28.92 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
7 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.34 BB) Hero has Qs Kd
Hero raises to 3 BB, UTG+1 calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold
Flop : (10.84 BB, 3 players) Jc Kh 8c
SB checks, Hero bets 5.08 BB, fold, SB calls 5.08 BB
Turn : (21 BB, 2 players) Kc
SB checks, Hero bets 12.04 BB, SB raises to 40.16 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 17.68 BB and is all-in
River : (80.44 BB, 2 players) 5s
SB shows 7c Ac (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 60%, Flop 44%, Turn 77%)
Hero shows Qs Kd (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 40%, Flop 56%, Turn 23%)
SB wins 80.44 BB
So always a tough spot with a set on a flush board, do you call or fold?
So, PF Vilain can call with many hands.
On flop, when he x/c I think he can hold: Kx,Jx,8x, - 88,JJ,TT,99 - T9,TQ, - Ac* - cc.
When the turn come, and he x/r, does he always beats me? Does he always hold: cc, 88, JJ, KJ, K8, KA?
Can he semi-bluff with some AcQ, AcJ, and some worst K*c?
On the turn, the pot odds are the 22%. If he always beat me on the turn with a flush or full house, I have 20% equity, but if he can semi-bluff here, I have 32%....
So, after debating with myself, I think I should have fold in this spot. But, do you think its always a fold or can we call in some exceptional situation....
Thx for you help!
Loading 3 Comments...
I think its a tough spot. Sorry for my bad english. I'm from Brazil and I can make some mistakes.
Let's try to give villain a range:
He's a 25/21 with 9% 3 bet. So, I think he's flating against utg open with:
Against that range, you have 54,26% of equity.
Flop was really good for you, you have TPGK but villain X/R you. So, from that range, vilain might X/R you with:
JJ,88,J8s+,KcJc,QcJc,AcTc,KcTc,QcTc,Ac9c,Kc9c,Qc9c,Tc9c,Ac8c,Kc8c,Qc8c,Ac7c,Kc7c,Ac6c,Kc6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,K9o+,QTo+,JTo,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs,AcJd,AcJh,AcJs,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,Ac9d,Ac9h,Ac9s
But, you block a lot of Kx and Qx from that range but you're not blocking the possible sets, club flushes, leaving villain with a lot of AcXc and KcXc.
The 5c improve vilain range , since most of his range after X/R the flop is made by AcXc and KcXc.
Vilain checks again, and I think you shoul definetely check back here, because any bet make you commited with the pot. I think we have to aware of SPR on this spots.
Vilain might check JJ, 88, J8s, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KJo,
QJo and against tha range you have only 19% of equity.
You bet and vilain X/R again putting you in all in. Here you've to pay 17,68bb and getting 3,54:1 pot odds. You need to win the pot around 22% but you don't have that equity against the range villain X/R on turn.
I think you should always fold here since you don't have equity.
And you should be aware that you have blockers for the hands you're beating in vilains range and a double X/R when a 3rd club hits the board almost always represents that vilain hits the draw.
GL on the tables m8.
thx m8.
he got check raised on the turn, not the flop
in short, vs most villains, I think I check turn. that card just hits their flop flatting range so much more than our hand. plus we don't have to be worried about his bare jacks and we also have a queen, which blocks his q 10 combinations for calling with open ended str8 draw, which means it is even more likely he has a club draw. ya, it would be nice to deny him some equity on the turn with his one club hands but I'm not sure that scenario outweighs the times we bet into a hand that beats us(flush) also, if he only has one club, one of his outs is dirty, the queen. if the q club hits river, we fill up, which is another small reason we don't have to be as concerned with denying equity on the turn. also, come turn I think we are pretty far ahead or pretty far behind. he would have raised any two pair/set combo on the flop so I'm never crediting him with jk, k8, 88, or JJ
3 way, wet board, I also would have sized up on the flop
Be the first to add a comment