Hi guys,

So I have a question about a calculation I made for a 3bet allin situation.
I was playing the following tournament when this hand occured:

888poker Hand History for Game 916437127
$300/$600 Blinds No Limit Holdem - * 30 06 2017 22:16:58
Tournament #105719880 $8 + $0.80 - Table #56 8 Max (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Button : ( $18,216 )
Hero in SB: ( $14,636 )
BB : ( $67,656 )
UTG : ( $6,818 )
MP : ( $10,706 )
MP+1 : ( $19,354 )
Hi-jack : ( $33,286 )
Cutoff : ( $7,448 )
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
Hero posts small blind [$300]
BB posts big blind [$600]
* Dealing down cards *
Dealt to Hero in SB [ Ad, 7h ]
folds
folds
folds
folds
folds
BTN raises [$1,384]
Hero in SB raises [$14,266]

Okay, so at this point my chip stack is 14.266 (after posting my SB). The button raises and his positional awareness of 94 hands is as following:

CO: 50% (2)
Btn: 50% (2), which will be 3 times now
SB: 100% (3)

He's playing overall 17/15 with a 3bet of 2,8% and 12,0 agg.fact. which leads me to think he's too agressive overall, but a competent player, knows what he's doing. My calculation is as following (and this is hypothetical which I think he raises pre and calls my shove with):

Raise PF on BTN 43,90%
(22+, 43s, 54s, 65s, 76s, 87s+, 97s+, T7s+, J7s+, Q7s+, K5s+, 87o, 98o, T8o, J8o, Q8o, K7o, every Ax)

Calls vs shove 7,10%
(88+, AJo+, AJs+, KQs)

Out of the 100% of his raisingrange he will call my shove with 16,17% of hands (43,9% / 7,1%)
He will fold 83,83% (100% - 16,17%)

If he calls and I lose I will lose 14.266 chips. 14.266 (100%) / 10 x 16,17% = 23.068,12
If he folds I will win 2.844 chips. 2.844 (100%) / 10 x 83,83% = 23.841,25
-------------
Win chips 773,13

So I will win some more than 1 bb overall?
Next to this when he calls my allin with his callrange (which I just described) I still have 28,132% chance to win.

Though it seems 24bb's is too risky to shove in this spot, but after calculation it seems like a pretty must shove?
If I did not do the match right feel free to correct me. Maybe someone has a helpfull tool of Excel-spreadsheet for me for such spots?

Many thanks in advance!

Greetings,

Marco