BVB spot facing huge turn over shove.
Posted by ashley jenkin
Posted by
ashley jenkin
posted in
Low Stakes
BVB spot facing huge turn over shove.
Tournament is $11 sunday storm with over 42,000 runners,the table seemed really soft and was chipping up nicely throughout.
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ffs the hand has not posted.
eat 1: magikpouf (17375 in chips)
Seat 2: ashj22 (30949 in chips)
Seat 3: azhb123 (6580 in chips)
Seat 4: karlbaby10 (425 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: KURDI21 (7481 in chips)
Seat 6: caca milis (6506 in chips)
Seat 7: TheJack85 (20 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: Portokasse1 (24810 in chips)
Seat 9: Kantanta18 (11015 in chips)
magikpouf: posts the ante 40
ashj22: posts the ante 40
azhb123: posts the ante 40
karlbaby10: posts the ante 40
KURDI21: posts the ante 40
caca milis: posts the ante 40
TheJack85: posts the ante 20 and is all-in
Portokasse1: posts the ante 40
Kantanta18: posts the ante 40
magikpouf: posts small blind 200
ashj22: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ashj22 [Qs Kc]
azhb123: folds
karlbaby10: folds
KURDI21: folds
caca milis: folds
TheJack85: folds
Portokasse1: folds
Kantanta18: folds
magikpouf: raises 1200 to 1600
ashj22: calls 1200
FLOP [4h Ks 3h]
magikpouf: bets 1600
ashj22: calls 1600
TURN [4h Ks 3h] [Jc]
magikpouf: bets 14135 and is all-in
Here is how I would personally break down this hand:
Assuming no reads/random, I would narrow his turn shove to flush draw or AK/KJ, maybe KQ. I think worse Kx for starters wouldn't 4x but rather limped or 2x/3x. Furthermore worse Kx usually doesn't shove turn but rather fires another standard bet (with the top of his Kx range) or check calls (with his Krag range). But the point is, I don't many worse Kx are in his range at all. Maybe KT is the worst hand he 4x's.
I think random 4x's are usually Ax/pairs. Gun to my head and I had to choose the hand he is holding, I would say AK.From my experience when a random makes a gigantic overbet, its usually for value majority of time sometimes a draw. If I had to quantify it, maybe 70/30 respectively.
But with that said, it is BVB. If there is a spot where people will get out line, its BVB. So given the general dynamics of BvB spots in general, I would certainly think seriously about calling. In most other situations, say MP vs HJ, I would fold without much thought.
Personally I would fold. We're crushed too often and we just have no idea how often this is an Ax flushdraw. The combination of being crushed too often, uncertainty of flush draw frequencies, and the size of the risk at hand makes this a fold for me.
But if the overbet was smaller, say slightly over pot (8k/9k), I wouldn't mind just sticking it in. Matter of fact, I would be more inclined to call a regular here. Simply because I just don't believe a reg would play hands that crush us (AK/KJ/2pair/sets) this way.
Any stats or reads on villain?
Thanks meritocracy for taking the time to give a great detailed analysis. Beaverhausin no reads and dont use a hud.
i will give my thoughts on this spot and the result 2moro.
my thinking on this was KQo obviously defending it flop comes down Ks 3h 4h im expecting him to c-bet alot and i actually have a strong hand BVB so ofc im atleast calling here, turn is Jc and he over shoves huge now i can immediately take from this shove that he is not a good player, it just dosent make any sense i feel like i can say 2 pair+ is very unlikely because why would you over shove huge getting better hands to fold when you pretty much have the nuts in this spot and the board isnt that wet either. im thinking it could be a really badly played Kx, flushdraw or maybe a pair+flushdraw, all i kept thinking about was how strong my hand was here BVB and the fact that people most get out line BVB so i ended up calling.
PokerStars Hand #115392454283: Tournament #894204693, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (200/400) - 2014/04/27 20:20:15 WET [2014/04/27 15:20:15 ET]
Table '894204693 2598' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: magikpouf (17375 in chips)
Seat 2: ashj22 (30949 in chips)
Seat 3: azhb123 (6580 in chips)
Seat 4: karlbaby10 (425 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: KURDI21 (7481 in chips)
Seat 6: caca milis (6506 in chips)
Seat 7: TheJack85 (20 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: Portokasse1 (24810 in chips)
Seat 9: Kantanta18 (11015 in chips)
magikpouf: posts the ante 40
ashj22: posts the ante 40
azhb123: posts the ante 40
karlbaby10: posts the ante 40
KURDI21: posts the ante 40
caca milis: posts the ante 40
TheJack85: posts the ante 20 and is all-in
Portokasse1: posts the ante 40
Kantanta18: posts the ante 40
magikpouf: posts small blind 200
ashj22: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ashj22 [Qs Kc]
azhb123: folds
karlbaby10: folds
KURDI21: folds
caca milis: folds
TheJack85: folds
Portokasse1: folds
Kantanta18: folds
magikpouf: raises 1200 to 1600
ashj22: calls 1200
FLOP [4h Ks 3h]
magikpouf: bets 1600
ashj22: calls 1600
TURN [4h Ks 3h] [Jc]
magikpouf: bets 14135 and is all-in
ashj22: calls 14135
*** RIVER *** [4h Ks 3h Jc] [Qd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
magikpouf: shows [Ad Kh] (a pair of Kings)
ashj22: shows [Qs Kc] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
ashj22 collected 34830 from side pot
ashj22 collected 180 from main pot
magikpouf finished the tournament in 19785th place
TheJack85 finished the tournament in 19786th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 35010 Main pot 180. Side pot 34830. | Rake 0
Board [4h Ks 3h Jc Qd]
Seat 1: magikpouf (small blind) showed [Ad Kh] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 2: ashj22 (big blind) showed [Qs Kc] and won (35010) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 3: azhb123 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: karlbaby10 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: KURDI21 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: caca milis folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: TheJack85 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Portokasse1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Kantanta18 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Looking at it again, AQhh makes a ton of sense too.
But yea, I wouldn't beat myself up over the call. This is just one of those spots where experience will come really handy. Learned the hard way myself calling in these same spots.
I think the key takeaway is the 4x preflop. Once he 4x's, you just gotta ask yourself do worse Kx really shove turn? Run down the list: well KJ got there, KT doubtful but maybe, K9....Once you get to K9 it becomes pretty apparent there is very little worse Kx in his range, if at all.
So work out the hand logically in your head. We have to assume this is for value X% of time. But if this is a draw enough times, then our wins will cover our losses = +EV.
But of course since we're just completely guessing as to the frequency the turn shove is a flush draw, the price of 14k to find out is simply too much. But like I mentioned earlier, if the price was say 8k/9k, then I can live with a guessy decision. Not only are you getting better odds, but flush draws are also more likely to take an overbet line for 8k/9k.
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