Bovada Sunday Major early stages- questionable 4bet/fold spot?
Posted by Douggyfr3sh
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Douggyfr3sh
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High Stakes
Bovada Sunday Major early stages- questionable 4bet/fold spot?
BN: 5,110
SB: 5,275
BB: 4,625
UTG: 4,335 (Hero)
UTG+1: 5,000
MP: 4,320
MP+1: 12,496
MP+2: 5,635
Lately I have been thinking a lot more about 4bet bluff spots on Bovada. They don’t come up that often, but I feel that I am flatting way too many 3bets and need to widen both my 4bet bluffing range and my folding range. This hand is in the sunday major on Bovada from this Sunday (I play the $18 50 seats satty every week, only satty on my schedule) and got in it. In this hand, villain had only RFI’d 1/16 opportunities and had flatted an open 3/10 opportunities. It was his first 3bet (30 hand sample). I feel that in this spot villains are going to tend to have a very strong 3betting range, but also that they are going to generally fold too much to 4bets. Additionally, I did not really want to play post OOP with a deep SPR vs a nutted range. In the past I would tend to just flat the 3b in a spot like this, but decided that 4bet/fold was the better play. What do you guys think? (we also block his 5bet get in range pretty well)
I think that my 4bet sizing was a little too big, and that the math would work out to be more advantageous to us if I had 4b to something like 17bb instead of 18.5. Seems like a small difference, but I think it’s very significant.
Flopzilla analysis:
If villain is 3betting a linear uncapped range of: 66+, A5o, ATo+, A4-A5s, A8s+, KTs+, KQo, 67-98s, 97s
There is 190 combos in that range, but the reduced combos after we take out our blockers is only 153 combos, and we block most of the top of the range.
we 4b 18.56 and there is 11.49bb in the pot. Our break even bluffing frequency is: 18.46 / (18.46 + 11.49) = 61.6%. Villain has to fold about 62% of the time for us to break even.
If villain folds suited connectors, AJo and under and ATs and under, worst pairs (99 and under), KQo, KT-KQs, he is only calling with 48 combos of hands. Villain’s folding frequency is then: (153-48) / 153 = 68.6%
This still assumes villian is gonna 5b pile AJs and TT, which most villains I don’t think are. However, villain could have a tighter 3betting range, so for balance I think we should keep these hands in.
If villain folds 68% of the time, our profit is:
0.68 * 11.49bb = 7.81bb
-0.32 * 18.49 = 5.92bb
7.81 – 5.92 = 1.89bb profit on the 4bet.
I'm not 100% confident that my math is correct. I'm also facing a lot of uncertainty about villain's 3betting range and it could be much tighter than the one I gave, although villain's fold to 4bet range i think is very likely to be at least 60% of their 3betting range most of the time.
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Would also love to hear discussion about flatting, 4bet/folding, and 4bet/get in ranges in general.
I don't think there's any way that 3-betting range is accurate for villain. Bare minimum, you need to add in some variable frequencies to almost all the hands - to assume villain is 3-betting all those hands with 100% frequency also assumes they have basically no flatting range on the BTN here, which is a bit of a weird assumption to make from only a 30 hand sample.
I think the likelihood of a random villain 3-betting hands like 66 or A5o here with no read on you (remember that you're probably a random to him as well) when you open UTG is close to zero. I don't play on Bovada but the games would have to be insane for that to be true.
That said, that doesn't necessarily mean this isn't a good 4-bet. The problem is that you've put hands like AJs and TT in their 5-bet jamming range, and then ended up folding to the jam getting pretty decent odds! If you think they're jamming that wide, this is probably a call.
However, I disagree with the logic of "villain might be a bit tighter with his 3-bets here, so we're going to try to account for that by widening his 5-bet shoving range" - this does account for lowering his folding to 4-bet frequency so it does help us calculate the bluff success % in a vacuum, but it doesn't tell us what our actual bluffing frequency should be here, and it also is probably going to end up putting us in spots where we should actually be 4-bet/calling hands like 88 and AJ if villain is 3-betting wide and folding a ton to 4-bets, because if he's folding enough to the 4-bet then it becomes profitable even if we sometimes price ourselves into a marginal call vs his 5-bet.
You can run these spots on HRC fairly straightforwardly - I think this is one where it can probably tell you with more accuracy than we can what your ranges should be here.
Awesome, thanks for the response! I've used HRC quite a bit in the past but switched to ICMIZER2 a while back. It seems tough to run good sims beyond a 3bet in ICMIZER so I will definitely get HRC downloaded again and take a crack at this spot. I agree w/ you that my oversimplification of adjusting his 5 betting range isn't good.
At 40/80 you don't have enough information to be precise about his ranges but certainly is the right type of combo to do it. Your frequency on this strategy should be highly dependant on the player.
Thx. I think it's more accurate for me to just say "I had an intuitive feeling that this was a good spot to 4bet fold and that it may have higher EV than flatting the 3bet". My range construction for villain was basically me trying somewhat futilely to prove it was likely +EV. With 30 hands on an opponent do we just pass on the play? Do we play vs what we think the field is doing on average? Or do we approximate a GTO strategy as bet wan until we have a good idea how to exploit the specific villain?
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