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Bigger 109$ - Hand + Icm Math Question

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Bigger 109$ - Hand + Icm Math Question

Blinds: t2,400/t4,800 (8 Players) CO: 149,047
BN: 113,000
SB: 208,797
BB: 74,378 (Hero)
UTG: 209,177
UTG+1: 274,419
MP: 78,692
MP+1: 70,266
Preflop (7,200) Hero is BB with 7 Q
4 folds, CO raises to 10,320, 2 folds, Hero calls 5,520
Flop (27,840) J 8 K
Hero checks, CO bets 12,528, Hero raises to 63,458 and is all in, CO calls 50,930

Hi.. i'd really appreciate it if one could help me doing some math on a situation like this and how you MTT regs approach it.

So we are at 41 players left and i have half of the average stack. Payout is 550$ and for 36-28 it is 656$.
Table is really active with lots of 3b, overcalling etc.

PFR is a reg i assume. He seems to have a fairly wide CO Range and in this excat spot the btn is a very tight plr and SB is a looser but not aggro guy. I think given the odds i can call easily and maybe shove QTs+ ?

OTF i have ~35-38% vs his gii-Range and i assume i have FE of roughly 20-30%. I can only spec on his cbeting game but the board hits both players very good and dont have a lot of Ax so i guess he wont cbet wide.

Do you just shove any FD and good J'x here ? What's your way of calculating icm/ev of such a spot ?

Regards

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