Do you have his VPIP/PFR? Would help tremendously in narrowing down a range.

According to Janda that would be a very profitable shove. "If you raise a 3.5x bb open X10-12 they will need to fold to 3b around 66.7% of time for it to be profitable".

However we also need to include the fact that the SB or BB might wake up with a monster.

If you accurately assigned a range I think your play was fine.

Alright finally implementing real math and Equilab!! WEEEEE

1. If he is opening 22% and his calling range is top 5% he is folding 77.27% of the time.

2. AJos equity vs. his range 5% range: (88+ AJs+, KQS,Akos)
   34.26%

3. Plugging in these numbers in the expected profit is very high: 4.64BBs

So this is a GREAT shove if you accurately assigned his opening and calling range. He is folding way too much here and it is a long term excellent play against these ranges.

Seems fine

Yea in game didn't have the hud workin but I knew and remembered more or less the villain stats.

The thing is: Does the simply fact that we're not getting called by worst make it EV-? Actually I don't think so because we should also estimate our FE and I guess the more FE I have, the wider I can shove exploitatively;
But if he's folding 77.27 % of the time, doesn't an any2 jam makes sense? As exploitative play I mean

But then, there's other point; and It's that we're maybe riskin too many bb's in this spot, which also makes attractive to flat pre dominating range and playin IP postflop. I guess it's less variance but by shoving we'll also be making money, although much riskier.

Would love to see your comments :)

When I select "all" in Equilab it shows "random" instead of including 100% of hands. Anyways I plugged in 99% of hands to solve this:

1. We are still assuming he has the same opening and calling range, thus he is folding to our shove 77.27% of the time.

2.Our equity is obviously very small against his range, and is a DISASTER if he calls. We our 27.44% equity against his 5% range.

1. Plugged these numbers in... I got that our EV is 3.89BBs. This means it is a clear shove. These calculations will be a bit off since I did not look at your exact BBs won when he folds, BBs won when we suckout with 24.49% equity, and BBs lost when the 5% hand beats us. The number will still be positive and will be EV+ to shove, but it might be smaller than 3.89bbs.

Conclusion: I believe we have to shove here... but I did not calculate for the SB or BB waking up with a monster. However this is still and EV+ play.

Also if anyone wants to work on math problems like this.. please pm me! I really love talking poker and analyzing tools. Would be great to have a conversation with someone that has experience and knowledge with HRM, Equilab, and solving equations like this. I am really into the Psychology and Math of Poker and want to continue my learning in these areas.