Big draw on the turn after we xr flop

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Big draw on the turn after we xr flop

50 turbo early stages 9 handed, no reads
100bb effective
Utg raise
Mp call
Btn call
I call bb 56cc

Flop 247chc
I chk, utg block, folds to me, i xr, utg call
Turn Js
The J is far better for my opponent. He still has all the overprs, nut flush draws, Jx, Jx with flush draws, potentially some sets. I have sets and potentially some 2 pairs and many draws. I cannot cap my opponents rng here.

What is our turn action? I wonder if a chk is ok, possibly to double xr. I also feel a bet is good, but not an overbet.

14 Comments

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Jae Kim 4 years, 9 months ago

I would definitely continue betting here. When you're XR this kind of flop action you are repping sets + two pairs. Raiser has 0 two pair combinations and discounted set combos so you actually have a stronger top range by a decent margin on flop. I agree with you the J is not a good turn card.

SoundSpeed 4 years, 8 months ago

I did end up blocking. Are you on board with the block? The more I think about it the more I think a 70-80% pot bet is better.

Jae Kim 4 years, 8 months ago

I like a 67% size here. I think block is fine exploitatively since you're not getting raised much but it really lowers your fold equity and you probably have to give up rivers.

SoundSpeed 4 years, 8 months ago

Thanks for all of your responses, it really helps. The last question is for the conclusion of the hand...I blocked and he raised.

I considering calling but I felt his line really wasn't super strong in the moment and i jammed.

I feel like I do have some value jams here with sets and possibly 2pr given it is early in a weaker field tourney and I have seen some crazy rngs in this event before and I need some bluffs and this hand pushes eq.

Maybe a jam is optimistic?

toothlessanaconda 4 years, 8 months ago

with 100 bbs effective once you check raise flop the jak on the turn is actually not that bad a card as you think it is and infact in relation to the board its kind of brick as nthe noard texture doesn't change much and infact a queen or king would be far worst cards in my opinion or ecen an ace so I think you can actually bet about 75 percent pot and if called can jam most rivers if its 8 or below and check give up on rivers which are bad for you.

Ryan Henry 4 years, 8 months ago

Hey Soundspeed.

Flop: C/R is good with your combo draw and small bet sizing, the larger villains sizing the less often you C/R.

Turn: Isn't as good for your range compared to villain, your 7x isn't interested in betting anymore and so when you do bet you are going to bet very polar as your value range shares a large % of the pot. Given how deep you are I would be betting 100-125% pot to set up a river shove (depends on what the stack to pot ratio is on the turn though). I actually think your combo draw wants to check on this turn and would be using worse flush-draws to bet which don't mind bet folding, also your combo draw has good equity against the average portion (which you can fold vs a bet, but your equity is decent vs that range anyway) of villains range, but vs the stronger portion (which your not folding out) has not as great equity with 1 card to come.

So in short I would X/R flop and X/R turn with this hand and mix in some sets/2 pair for this line.

Jae Kim and I both appear to be approaching this spot different, so I could run a sim on it when I have time and post it back here.

SoundSpeed 4 years, 8 months ago

I think its geat 2 different coaches approach this 2 different ways.

I definitely agree we want to be polar here and the block size is no good. The more I think about the ranges the more it seems I am ice skating uphill a bit in trying to fold out the stronger portion of his range which includes overpairs that may not fold.

I feel like I am pushing eq though and I want to find a way to realize that eq.

aramsay 4 years, 3 months ago

Interesting to see the different opinions, but i agree with soudspeed- are we really trying to get villian off an overpair this early in a donkament?

GeeTeeOh 4 years, 8 months ago

As I have shown in another topic for a very similiar spot, PIO prefers to mostly x/r and x/c combos of this caliber. But betting cannot be bad either, that combo just has so much EQ that you cannot make a mistake by going either way.
J is bad for your range and you should definitely play a polar turn betting range.

SoundSpeed 4 years, 8 months ago

I can see xc being a thing and more so at the wsop main with 300bb and 2 hr levels. I think I lean toward aggessive action in a turbo. I really want to find a way to fully realize eq and push any amount of fold eq. But I also think maybe I overestimate how much fe I have vs even the middle porton of opponents rng.

Brian Rasta 4 years, 3 months ago

Hi everyone! About your first question - Sure I would continue betting here.
About the 2nd question, - I definitely agree with the response of toothlessanaconda.
The player's point of view is professional.

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