big $55 ft spot with aces, sick fold?
Posted by jasylum
Posted by
jasylum
posted in
Mid Stakes
big $55 ft spot with aces, sick fold?
SB: 2084391
BB: 1090235
UTG: 1500835
HJ: 734130
CO: 1510134
BN: 568275
BB: 1090235
UTG: 1500835
HJ: 734130
CO: 1510134
BN: 568275
Co was a tag unknown from england, seemed fairly decent though, was running 18 10 %5 over 70 hands, bb was fairly aggro reg decent playing 22 20 with 8% 3 bet over a larger sample.
Preflop
(52500)
(6 Players)
UTG raises to 70000,
HJ folds,
CO calls 70000,
BN folds,
SB folds,
BB calls 35000
Flop
(227500)
8
4
7
(3 Players)
BB bets 105000,
UTG calls 105000,
CO raises to 385000,
BB folds,
UTG folds
now here is where i feel i would like some regs views on this, sick fold, i feel bb lead and then when hero flats that villain can view these both light, its a draw heavy board, we dont have the ace of spades which makes things a little more interesting, views on this? sick fold i feel, would u rip here the way this was played out? i have heard of peoiple saying call and then calling on brick turns by realising your equity but think with it being such a wet board we have to ship or fold here?
Final Pot
CO
wins 568750
all thoughts appreciated
Loading 6 Comments...
I dont think CO is the type of guy that is going to be squeezing here too light, but given you just flat the bb's lead - and bb being aggro, he might be doing this w 99/TT, KQss, Axss, 9t and other combos for diffrent reasons (protection, value, semi bluffs etc).
The hand pretty much becomes problematic by our flat. Im pretty unsure what i would do here, seems like ICM suicide too, vs his r/c range. It feels like we're flipping pretty much vs his r/c range, and calling his raise is pretty meh. Don't think we're getting too exploited tho by folding, icm wise.
Once you just flat and CO raises I still think you have to get it in here. To me this seems a bad fold both theoretically and exploitably. You never have a better hand here unless you flat a set here but I don't think that's good either.
Haven't done any ICM calc on this, but assuming he's gonna r/c here, and we're pretty much facing a flip versus his range (some we are drawing very thin versus), there being two 20bb stacks, isn't this almost a nEV fold? Purely from ICM perspective, i mean cEV wise its ok to GII...
I'm with Cairy totally on his first post and would echo it throughout. If someone could do numbers that would be great. Think Cairy's range for villain is spot on just don't give him too many Axss. Only a couple of combos at best of that.
Also, if we raise donk bet (as suggested and how I play it) and CO shoves... then what? 'Priced in' to call because of FD's and 99/TT in his range? I think I'd end up raise folding this flop if CO does cold 3 bet shove. Tricky, tricky ICM spot. Love it.
If we raise the donk bet and get shoved on it's a completely different story to flatting the donk and then being raised by CO, as happened. I agree once we raise the donk bet and get 3b then it's probably a fold but as played out, i don't see how we can let this hand go?
CO is risking 385k to win 437k and we're going to fold the top of our range? It's not like he's committing either with 1.05 million behind after his 385k raise.
Also with villain's (i think this is a reasonable range) range of 99-JJ, AT-AQss, KQss, T9ss, JTss and 77-88 (providing villain doesn't flat 44 here) then we're ~67% vs that range once we shove 1.05m more and villain calls.
I think one of the biggest problems is his sizing, he nearly 4x the DL. I would expect him to flat a part of his weaker valuerange, and raise the mid/hi. I dont think he's ever folding to a shove, and we're never ever going to be 67% versus his range. It's too ambitious. He can pretty much flat all low-equity hands to realize equity on turns. Based on his stats he's more likely to be a 'caller' than a 'raiser', so imo we're going to be screwed here a lot, and flipping vs a bunch, dominating a few.
I just dont think a 18/10 player is the type of guy to just randomly 4x a flop like that without at least having a very strong range. To me that gap just shows how more call-heavy he will be post.
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