Big $22 bet sizing path

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Big $22 bet sizing path

SB: 3354
BB: 1980
UTG: 3712
UTG1: 2523
UTG2: 4021 (Hero)
LJ: 6285
HJ: 1505
CO: 5990
BN: 3230
Preflop (120) (9 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 8
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, Hero raises to 160, LJ folds, HJ folds, CO calls 160, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop (440) 4 A 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets 238, CO calls 238
Turn (916) 4 A 2 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets 655, CO calls 655
River (2226) 4 A 2 4 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets 940

Villain not aggro pre, pretty comfortable trying to get three streets of Ax on a double paired board. What you guys think on bet sizing ? I am going for more an exploitative one than a game theory oriented one. 

33 Comments

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So_Nitty 10 years, 6 months ago

Nice to have the Ah on board because it eliminates so many flush draws from his hand that would dominate you. It also seems unlikely for him to have a 4 or 2 in his hand more likely an overpair. I think your sizing was good - don't think you can go too much larger on such a scary board. Did he have an A?

So_Nitty 10 years, 6 months ago

That was my other thought but it seemed unlikely......sry

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

just kidding (: he had AsQh... if he isn't the type of turning Ax into a bluff river is an easy b/f

my flop sizing is kinda standard in a board that I have a range advantage since he is probably not flatting 44/22 there

my turn sizing is a little bigger because he is so passive preflop that is he is flatting AxTh, AxJh, AxQh, AxKh so my main target is those hands that are never folding to a bigger sizing

my river sizing is decreases in terms of %psb to make him still bluff catch with top of his turn Ax hands

but I don't know if this is optimal


So_Nitty 10 years, 6 months ago

I like the sizing on all streets really especially on the river......good job. Hard to imagine he would have called anything much larger with 2 pairs on the board and the 3 flush

John Shamwoww 10 years, 6 months ago

Exploitative good sizing on turn but I don't think you have to bet flop that big. 180 seems sufficient to me because we are still with 9high vs a passive opponent who won't really float us here and his continuing range is inelastic to our bet size. 

Turn, I like the big bet.

River is probably the most interesting. I would want to nationality check the player along with his stats and decide. For example, if he is Greek (sorry Greek people) or Australian (I'm an Aussie too) I would go bigger because hey they have top pair...CALL. So something like 1400 seems good. If no really country read, I would still maybe go closer to half pot. I doubt the extra few chips will sway them if they are a passive opponent with a good top pair hand. Vs this villain as a whole population pool of passive players, I think your sizing is good because it gets paid a vast majority of the time but could maybe get a bit more. 

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

I think his flop and turn calling ranges are reasonably inelastic and this is why I decided to go bigger. Having no showdown value wants me to bet bigger, also. My river sizing is on the smaller size since I want to the class of bluff catching hands still be comfortable calling three streets here and I have very few bluffs on this situation, because my % of the time I am getting called is reasonably high for this sizing. In overall anything between 900-1120 on the river is fine, but I didn't want to put anything more than 1000 chips.

John Shamwoww 10 years, 6 months ago

Yes his flop calling range is inelastic, which is why you should be betting a bit smaller here. His calling range is inelastic - not his whole range. He folds flop a ton and we don't have to bluff so big.  Having no showdown being a reason for betting bigger with an inelastic calling range makes no sense when you consider what i just stated. 

I think it's an exploitably well played hand but i would just go a bit bigger on river if we're exploiting here. I did say just a bit bigger, not much but you could probably squeeze out another 100 chips from him. 

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

I disagree that his whole range is elastic on this board. Is he floating KhQx/QhJx here ? I bet 1:1 that not. Is he folding 99-55 ? This A high two tone boards brings a equity path that the fluctuations aren't that smooth when they happen but they are more rigid.

I will try to put an example here since I am not a native speaker: QJss against A5 has 3.8% equity on A42hh but in terms of discrete equity a perfectly balanced nuts/air range will make this turn card much tougher to call light as A5 because my value range OTT that contains an A is basically AA or AxKh, AxQh. Since his range is more suited heavy than my perceived range (which is not usually true to me specifically because I would open 54s) I can't be value betting thinly as ATo. 

Getting a cheaper price on my flop bluffs make sense when he is calling with a higher frequency since I need to construct a three street bet sizing path given my range. It is a exploitative bet sizing that wants to bloat a pot against a inelastic two street calling range. 

I agree that betting a little bigger won't make him fold the particular hand that he has but his overall range in this board is so vulnerable to my three street betting range that I can see him folding A9s/A8s for 1200-1400. 


John Shamwoww 10 years, 6 months ago

I didn't say his whole range is elastic. I said the hands he calls with on the flop, he calls with regardless of sizing (within reason) and his folding range just folds regardless of sizing. Capping our flop sizing to 180 (40%) on his flop seems reasonable i would argue, on this particular occasion. 

Do you think he flats QJo here? If you think he does then he's pretty loose pre-flop. And if he is loose pre flop i maintain you could probably bet a little bigger here on river. 

For a non-native English speaker you seem to be able to put sophisticated sentences together! :D

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

One of the major problems of betting 180 OTF is that I can't represent too many strong hands on later streets. I won't be betting AA/AK/AQ/A4/44/22/54s for a 40% bet sizing with 50bbs behind. 

Ty for the last comment... runitonce helped a bit. (:


JerseyGrinder23 10 years, 6 months ago

I'm curious, do you have any stats on the villian?  This would change my bet sizing drastically.  If no stats, I'll try and make reads if they are a "calling station".  Against calling stations" I'll usually bet 70-80% of pot to get value.  Against others usually 60%ish.

baetamedina 10 years, 6 months ago

If he shoves would you fold here? You played the hole hand considering he has an Ax on his hand, right? So, i think your bet on river could be much much bigger. I think most players wouldn't fold Ax here to any bets. Also, with an A on his hand he might me thinking you're bluffing and this is one more reason for you to bet bigger. I would go for 1400 considering his stack

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

what is he repping by shoving ?

I think his range is elastic here, but was my read at the time. He didn't snap call me so that may be an indication...

baetamedina 10 years, 6 months ago

Maybe A2s, A4s, 32s? I think its not likely, but it is possible... So it just reinforce that he had an Ax and that's the reason why i think you should bet much bigger on river, don't you agree? A 1400 or even a bigger bet would look like a bluff here 

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

none of them shows a profit against UTG+2 range and I doubt he has it. I don't have information on him so against an average opponent I don't think I can bet larger than 1k-1.1k.

The main reason is that I have almost zero bluffs OTR. Since he has so many Ax and flushes on his range it implies that his folding frequency will be lower than what I need him to fold to make this a three street profitable bluff.

I may bluff KhQx OTR but I won't bluff KxQh on this river to doesn't make my range proportion of value bets and bluffs to unbalanced given how many more combos off suit hands represent in a texture than doesn't allow me to establish a value/bluff frequency that isn't close to optimal.

The river sizing is based on his range elasticity. Since I (and the board) block a good amount of flushes and he probably has only 76hh that I beat my target is his Ax hands. If he has AT-A5 he needs to fold this river for a larger bet. The main reason is my value range on Ax type of hands consists only on AA/AK since I am checking (or betting smaller since I have more thin value bets AJo/AQo) OTR. 

Given that, he doesn't block a good part of my value range that are flushes and full houses since I probably have 54s and he doesn't so Ax isn't the strongest bluff catcher if doesn't contain a heart. If he has AxKh/AxQh/AxJh/AxTh I agree that he may look me up for a larger sizing but given the percentage of that in his overall range I decided to go for a smaller sizing to include the majority of his Ax hands.

baetamedina 10 years, 6 months ago

I agree with most of it. What i don't agree is with his AT-A5 need to fold to bigger bets. We agree that is very unlike him to have a flush an a 2/4. If he has it, its ok, its a risk worth to taken. So, we play the hole hand putting him on an A. For me the important thing here is: what is he thinking our range is? In my opinion, most of the time he thinks you're bluffing. Your bet on flop and turn reduces the flush range and 2/4 is not in your range as well. So, since he has an A, he problably thinks you are bluffing. And, if he thinks that, he would call your bet. And, with that in mind, i think that a bigger bet or even an over bet would looks like a bluff (more than a <1000 bet). If i were playing this hand i would think you have a pair and trying to bluff. But, with your bet on the river i wouldn't feel confortable, because it is a bet from someone that wants a call.. Maybe thats why he spend a good time thinking...

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

In my opinion, most of the time he thinks you're bluffing.

Why ? What are my value range ? What are my bluffing range ? From the proportion you can say something but "looks like you are bluffing" doesn't make much sense.

If I had 99-66 I would check turn. If I had KK-TT I may check flop. Makes zero sense to bet three streets with a pair on this texture. 

John Shamwoww 10 years, 6 months ago

Raphael's range is pretty uncapped here given he can have all flushes, Ax, and both quads. So i disagree that most of the time someone would think he is bluffing. It's pretty tough to be calling down here wider than <flush because his bluffing range is hard to find other than 3 high card flush blockers being Jh+.

If you're calling down here with A5-AT (or even calling these hands pre flop) then you need to recheck your strategies and maybe find your showdown line in HEM/PT4. 

Crav Koni 10 years, 6 months ago

So you are fine with having very little bluffs on this turn, and not making some valuehands to bluff instead?

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

my KxQh, KhQx, KhJx, KxJh that are the bottom of my flop bluffing range also improve on this card and the number of absolute nutty hands like 44 decrease a bunch in combo numbers so I am fine with a larger sizing exploitatively speaking. OTR I target a size that leans towards the game theory optimal on the spot, given my value-bluff ratio since I am probably giving up with my offsuit KJ combos and bluffing my KQ offsuit combos to stay balanced.


Crav Koni 10 years, 6 months ago

Makes sense, and youre high pp, you wont turn them into bluffs? Or you have them in youre c/c c/c-c/f range? Cant that be exploitable? If you check call thoose one street, fi can just continue barrel you away.

But im curius on youre GTO size. How do you know that sizing is optimal in that spot?

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

I may cbet then give up 99 and cbet and call turn, it depends on the player, the sizing and if I have a heart on my hand. 

I talked to this guy game theory and he told me.

OutPlayU27 10 years, 5 months ago

Agree with John, on your flop bet (i think 180 is more than fine), for same reasons.
Turn i like it, now on the river i´ll bet something like 1.2K

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