Big 109 - River shove?

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Big 109 - River shove?

Big 109, blinds 125/250, stacks: hero 25k, villian 6.4k, QsJs Open from UTG+1, 8 handed and BB defends.

4d 8s Ac Td 2h

cbet flop, cbet turn (double gutter), villain has pot size stack on river

Betting = 4200/(4200+4200) = 50% villain to fold to profit from bluffs.

3 barrel value hands = 88(3), AA(3), ATs(2), A8s(2), A4s(2), AKs(3), AKo(6) = 21

I think ~20 combos of bluffs to balance and make his call indifferent either way... is this correct?? Or is it less combos?

bluffs = flush draws(3(KQ,KJ,QJ - we don't open anything else that we play this way and doesn't have showdown value - because opening 9Ts and K9s is to loose imo UTG+1)) QJs(3), = 6 bluff combos.

So am I correct when I say on dry boards from an EP, correct frequency opener, it's clear that betting ranges are more weighted towards value hands, demonstrated above?

And in reference to the above hand do I need to be triple barreling bluffing more, so inc. all broadway gutters (8 combos) as they have better bluff catching blockers than 66&77 or do I need to reduce my value range by cutting out AK (9 combos)? All with the purpose that we are more balanced.

If we do either of these two (and I prefer adding in broadway gutters) we end up with our range being 60% value 40% bluff approx. and if we're not jamming QsJs here we're not bluffing enough? Is this analysis along the correct lines? Is this the correct way to anyalise poker hands?

In conclusion: Is it fair to say that when we open from EP and get dry A high boards we should be barreling almost our entire none showdown range against BB defends due to our range being so strong? And finally, do we need to consider the tendencies of villian? If he has a high fold to cbet% over a decent sample should this reduce our bluffing frequency or does that impact our win rate based on the evidence above?

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