Big 109 value bet
Posted by DreamON
Posted by
DreamON
posted in
High Stakes
Big 109 value bet
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/16020315_2FF1A5FB08
Is this a bad value bet? Should I just check back?
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value bet
value from what?
Yea not so much to get value from but was thinking from any pairs under Qx.
Check back IMO, hand as played - Villain only has to win the hand a quarter of the time on the river. Cant see him ever folding an A in this spot unless you bet on the turn as well.
The likely equilibrium on this hand is to check back KQ on the 80th percentile. Sizing wise, you probably need to bet a little smaller, 1/3 pot seems fine, since AJ-AT probably aren't three streets value hands depending on his defending frequency.
Can you elaborate on your process for estimating this, please? I'm not disputing it at all, just curious about how you got to the point of being able to be so specific about the equilibrium here.
Have you just turned yourself into a GTO cyborg by spending hundreds of hours running equilibrium calculations? :)
Basically as anything that you don't know the answer, try and error. It depends on a variety of strategies that BB is playing. As it is a red tournament, it is more likely that BB is passive and don't want his weak Ax to get raised on a flush river, which increases the EV of checking.
His river calling frequency with 9x on As9d5h4sQs is low enough that betting more 1/3 pot may narrow enough his range that KQ turns to bet a value bluff.
^can't imagine Hero has too many flushes otr, since we have pretty big range advantage on this board aren't we going to be barreling turn almost always w/f draws?
not sure what this means, seems like typo somewhere:
"may narrow enough his range that KQ turns to bet a value bluff."
"may narrow enough his range that KQ turns to bet a value bluff."
The Villians calling range will tend to tighten the larger Hero bets.
In essence you should adjust (reduce in this case) your bet sizing to target calls from the type of hands you wish to gain value from.
By betting bigger Villian has less odds on a call which should generally impact the calling range here. If this means less hands you beat turn up in villians calling range then there will be less hands that KQ will gain value from. You will have a greater Ev when Villian folds in comparison to when hero calls.
Check back here.
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