Big 109, middle stage

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Big 109, middle stage

Blinds: t300/t600 (9 Players) SB: 15,017
BB: 39,790
UTG: 23,175
UTG+1: 16,911
MP: 8,697
MP+1: 31,899
MP+2: 5,759
CO: 24,773 (Hero)
BN: 29,531
Preflop (900) Hero is CO with Q A
3 folds, MP+1 raises to 1,200, MP+2 folds, Hero raises to 3,000, 3 folds, MP+1 raises to 6,400, Hero calls 3,400
Flop (14,375) 4 Q J
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 5,031, MP+1 raises to 25,424 and is all in, Hero calls 13,267 and is all in
Turn (58,097) 4 Q J J
River (58,097) 4 Q J J T
Final Pot MP+1 wins and shows two pair, Aces and Jacks.
CO lost and shows two pair, Queens and Jacks.
MP+1 wins 50,971

How do you think? Guy opens 20% and 3bets 17%. My bet was shitty. Thanks for comments.

6 Comments

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q3timmy 8 years, 7 months ago

If I am not mistaken you need roughly 26.5% equity vs his shove OTF to break even. If we give him a really wide range for a 4bet that would play this way, such as: JJ+,AKs,AdKc,AhKc,AsKc,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdJc,AhJc,AsJc,AcJd,AcJh,AcJs,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,Ac9d,Ac9h,Ac9s.

you have 34.77 % equity.

That is obv. a pretty ridiculous range, since not all the hands would shove flop and many would not be always 4bet by villain if ever. Also some hands that might 4bet for value such as AK, would likely not 4bet to that sizing. Therefore, a more realistic range could be:

QQ+,AcJd,AcJh,AcTd

where I added the Ax combos as 4bet bluffs and since he probably doesn't always 4bet these hands I just took 3 combos.

now you are down to 23% equity.

If you don't have any reads, I think it's a fold, even though it's closer than I thought.

thewizz 8 years, 7 months ago

q3timmy

Villian is almost giving to good of a odds here oop, thats his range looks more like k/k a/a heavy given his line, i dont think he gonna take this line that often with even a/j a/q a/k j/j mayby q/q , do u think we still have to call pre here ?

q3timmy 8 years, 7 months ago

Sorry, i didn't comment on pre. Yes, you can fold pre unless you are against a 4bet happy regular. Like I said with such a 4bet sizing he should be really polarized between AA, KK, and some random bluffs, but i think the majority of players will not have enough bluffs that 4bet to that size to make it worth continuing post.

Also, by folding we can never make a huge mistake, while when calling we will be in plenty of really ugly spots, which becomes really relevant with such a nice stack in a great tourney.

yCavia 8 years, 6 months ago

U can fold vs population. Calling cuz of sizing is defendable but ur getting that price for a reason too often, hence def check-back flop and get closer to showdown.

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