Am I losing tons of value by not betting in this river?
Posted by dickinsonpkr
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dickinsonpkr
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Am I losing tons of value by not betting in this river?
In 6max tournament decent, slightly loose agressive player raises 2,5x in highjack. I 3bet 2,5x from the button with 9d 9c. Everyone folds, then he decides to call (both 60bb deep).
Flop comes Ks 9s 5s. He checks I decide to bet 55% of the pot and he calls. Turn 8h. He checks I bet 55% again and he calls. River 6c. He checks and I check back. I know I may be losing certain value by not beting because of Ak combos (hard to explain he is not 4beting me preflop tho). I'm more inclined to check because of all the Ax spade suited combos which he could be slowplaying me. I just see very few value combos with which he would call 3barrels (being quite a solid player) and I would still be in front. Do you think I'm losing value by not betting or is my thought of protecting showdown value legit? Let's see what you guys think!!
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First, not a fan of three-betting preflop. Flatting here seems more profitable.
As played, I'm inclined to go for value on the river, although it is close. AK may or may not be four-betting preflop, but he also has KQ here, some KJs, KTs, 7s7x, 6s6x, all of which may call off on the river. You may even see a call with TsTx or JsJx.
Some combinations of Asxs may slowplay the turn, but I think those hands should typically be fast playing. They don't block your bluffs as much as usual (how many offsuit As do you really three-bet preflop?) so they typically want to get the money in on the turn.
Thanks fot the advice! I see 99 is a reasonable hand to play postflop IP against a late agressor. But would you consider 3betting slightly lower pairs such as 66 77 88 as more profitable in that spot to gain fold equity? Or would you go for the same flat strategy?
Preflop I'd rather go for a more polarized strategy by three-betting JJ+,AQ+,KJs+ and then some A2s-A6s and 76s-54s bluffs. 99 do poorly against continuing ranges and really hate being four-bet at this stack depth. For lower pairs I think the argument for just calling is even stronger.
If you use a more polar sizing, I would also size up the three-bet a little.
Regarding the preflop play I like to mix it up between calling and 3betting there, depending on the opponents and table flow.
As for the River I would go for value there because I think he is much more likely to call you down with a top pair / pocket pair hand in that spot than to ch/c or ch/r you with a flush (except you got notes on him that say different), I think he would bet the river for value if he really had the flush.
I do see villian play and call you down there with ATo/AJo/AQo (with the A of spades) on F+T and AKo on the R as well plus TT+ mostly, so I think your ahead and therefor I would definitely go for another value bet.
I've got another line of action I would like you all to evaluate. I propose a c-bet on the flop, a check on the turn and a bet on the river (in case the villain checks the turn as well). Do you like that kind of approach?
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