AA vs ch/r ALL In on the River 75 BB deep
Posted by MakeMeSmille
Posted by
MakeMeSmille
posted in
Low Stakes
AA vs ch/r ALL In on the River 75 BB deep
Blinds: t10/t20 (8 Players)
MP: 1,580 (Hero)
UTG+1: 3,220
MP+1: 1,470
CO: 1,400
BN: 1,410
SB: 1,460
BB: 1,480
UTG: 1,480
UTG+1: 3,220
MP+1: 1,470
CO: 1,400
BN: 1,410
SB: 1,460
BB: 1,480
UTG: 1,480
Preflop
(30)
Hero is MP with
A
A
, , ,
Flop
(130)
T
K
2
,
Turn
(270)
T
K
2
7
,
River
(570)
T
K
2
7
5
, ,
Final Pot
UTG+1 wins 1,150
Ok so my plan was value bet 3 streets. But this River CH/R ALL IN looks so strong and of course is wary stage if tourney. So IMO no point going for stacks.
On the flop i think Opponent have TP, 2nd pair or draw.
Turn
7h Open just fd so its save to 2nd barrel
River
is blank.
I think villa have set or 2 pairs lil KT and he slow playing to the river.
Loading 4 Comments...
This is a spot I would like to have a read (having nitty stats would be enough for me) in order to make this fold.
Readless I am calling all day, I have one of my stronger hands that bet 3 streets and he probably gets to this river with enough AJhh, AQhh QJs, mby J9s. I expect him to have KTs 22,TT,77 for value (11 combos) but also raise some of them on the flop or turn.
Don't you think we can't put assumptions that this player is competitive. So in his range you can find weak hands as well like T7. You think on the river he will have most off time pure bluff? I don't think so we are better than 45%
I would not expect an unknown to have T7 here alot, and if he does than it's T7s which is 2 combos and he is likely not raising on the river.
And we need 32% to make a +Cev call. Probably around 35% for ICM but not 100% on this one.
So if he has 7 value combos (let's say he raises flop or turn with 4 combos out of 11) he only needs 4 bluff combos for us to make this call.
which stake is this ? I rarely see people bluffing against your very, very strong range. Your range is totally uncapped and shoving even 22 here is kinda optimistic.
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