99 v Paffchen in big $109 BvB

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99 v Paffchen in big $109 BvB

So I'm in the BB with 99 against Paffchen who is a reg. I have 1.2k hands on him in my HUD and have him running at 34% 4b after raising. My initial thoughts were to 3b/5b shove having seen his stats here but I'm wondering if its just a bit too early in the trny to be doing this and maybe a bit spewy when we have plently of chips and there are still much better spots to be had.......maybe also his 4b get in range will be tighter at this stage in the trny. Just wanted to post this and see how others would play it. Should we just flat pre etc...

PokerStars Hand #94361524979: Tournament #708010443, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (30/60) - 2013/02/20 18:47:49 WET [2013/02/20 13:47:49 ET]
Table '708010443 23' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: ozzieowen (3100 in chips)
Seat 2: TAN CHO ONG (2615 in chips)
Seat 3: tonn22 (3715 in chips)
Seat 4: BezzzzPaleva (2970 in chips)
Seat 5: PlatonXRS (6823 in chips)
Seat 6: Nico1429 (3005 in chips)
Seat 7: OlegAdG (3371 in chips)
Seat 8: G1a1u1s1s (2777 in chips)
Seat 9: Päffchen (3850 in chips)
ozzieowen: posts the ante 5
TAN CHO ONG: posts the ante 5
tonn22: posts the ante 5
BezzzzPaleva: posts the ante 5
PlatonXRS: posts the ante 5
Nico1429: posts the ante 5
OlegAdG: posts the ante 5
G1a1u1s1s: posts the ante 5
Päffchen: posts the ante 5
Päffchen: posts small blind 30
ozzieowen: posts big blind 60
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ozzieowen [9s 9h]
TAN CHO ONG: folds
tonn22: folds
BezzzzPaleva: folds
PlatonXRS: folds
Nico1429: folds
OlegAdG: folds
G1a1u1s1s: folds
Päffchen: raises 102 to 162
ozzieowen: raises 273 to 435
Päffchen: raises 355 to 790
ozzieowen: ????

8 Comments

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mike 12 years ago
since i don't play enough MTTs i don't really know the best play but here are a few thoughts

the 4B% you mention is only useful in the context of opponents raise first in from SB. think of it in the extreme for a second. is he opening SB with 100% of hands and 4B 34% of all hands? or is he opening top 10% of hands and only 4Bing 34% of that nit range.

i prefer to use 4B range as it gives you this data assuming pretty big sample size. other HUD thought is that you can filter your HUD data by stack size in HM2

and of course if you don't want to 3B/5B just call preflop
SighNeverBink 12 years ago
keep raising obv, this looks like bottom of inducing range so 1177/call is okay but you can just jam if you think his bluff range is really high card heavy and if you are not comfortable playing against a call.
Lucas Greenwood 12 years ago
If you aren't comfortable 3bet 5betting this spot, I would just flat the open. The main factors I would consider here are how wide does he open the sb, and how wide do you 3bet the bb.I believe Paffchen is quite aggressive so I'd have no qualms 3bet 5betting this unless you've been playing super tight.
Pinchop73 12 years ago
Literally never getting ool enough this early to warrant 3>5ing.

Flat and take him to the streets ip.
serbie 12 years ago
i'd just flat pre most of the time, and play a pot postflop in posiiton. you have position and a solid hand, so i like that spot vs a reg. i think there's a lot of value in that situation.
if i was 3-betting him tho, i usually wouldn't be looking to fold pre.
Blue_Eyes 11 years, 11 months ago
Depends on what he thinks of you, but I'd say if you are someone who 3bets somewhat often, and he knows that, u should have a pretty decent amount of fold equity here. He plays back a ton on regs. So a shove is def +EV and i think its too much +EV to pass on, even this early.
Flatting is ofc a valid option, but ud have to be ready to do some uncomfortable 3 streets calling quite often, or make some semi-hero folds. but its still a nice spot, being ip.
GameTheory 11 years, 11 months ago
The most crucial information is how wide his 4-betting range is. For instance if you knew how wide he opens here in the small blind that could give a nice indication. Given that he likely opens more than 30% and 4-bets more than 34% of his opens since he is OOP and this is a blind battle his 4-betting range should be wider than 10%, against which you can profitably 5-bet call.

If you don't know much about his ranges it is clearly safer to just call. One argument for 5-betting can be that you know that he likes to get it in with small/medium pairs.

But even then it remains a very marginal play with very high variance, if you feel you have a decent edge over the table you should not take this line and vice versa.
danish shaikh 11 years, 10 months ago
Dont like 3betting calling is the best possible option don't think he is going buck wild so early his 4bet is more for value and since u have already 3bet him i dont think folding is an option now.

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