Early stages of a tournament: 99 on a J84r board - how hard can we push?
Posted by EdChap87
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EdChap87
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Mid Stakes
Early stages of a tournament: 99 on a J84r board - how hard can we push?
Second level of a live MTT, blinds at 50/100 with starting stacks of 10,000. Effective stack c.9,500.
Action is folded around to Hero in late position with 99. Hero opens for 300 and gets one caller in the small blind (too early for any concrete reads, although he had been fairly active already).
Flop: J83 rainbow. Villain checks, Hero bets 425. Villain raises to c.1,500. At this stage, I didn't have him on an overpair given he hadn't 3-bet, nor a set, since on such a dry board the general population tendency is to check-call the flop (and possibly turn) and let the pre-flop aggressor continue to volunteer money. It's possible that he's got a J10-type hand and is betting for protection, but I called as the check-raise felt a bit bluffy and 99 is too solid a hand to give up at this stage.
Turn: 6. He leads out for c. 3,000. I tank for a bit, but ultimately fold, choosing to wait for a better spot. The lead out felt weak, but how much heat can 99 really take?
What do you make of my line / reasoning? Would it have been an idea to shove over the top on the turn, putting him to a difficult decision or is it better to walk away with over 7,000 chips left?
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You want to check back this flop a large %. And 99 is one of the best hands to do so. You check back because you have good showdown strength and relatively protected on all turns, making it easy to call at least a turn bet and assess river. Additionally, getting value from worse on multiple streets is ambitious.
On top of that, when you bet this flop, with this type of hand, you are in a whole world of hurt when villain raises, which ironically is the reason you posted this hand and why checking makes more sense.
As it happens, and what makes this a bit more tricky is that you do have a good bluff catcher. His c/r bluffs on this board should consist of 9T (which you block) and probably, as he flatted from the SB, only the suited combos too. Maybe 67s/56s combos make better candidates to x/r and perhaps he bluffs those too. But you're playing live, and live players, generally, ARE AWFUL! Period. I'd throw all balanced play out of the window.
I think you're wrong if you don't put sets (88, 44) in his range and even JJ some % of the time. He can also x/r AJ. Sets are a great hand to x/r flop here, why wouldn't the general population do this? (Other than the general population being bad). In fact, it's really the only viable value hand to x/r when flatting out of the SB on this board.
As played; b/f flop, especially with little to no reads.
Optimally; x flop, call turn and call most rivers with an excellent bluff catcher.
This is affectively turning your hand into a bluff and IMO setting money/your tourney life on fire.
Thanks for your reply - very interesting and much appreciated.
I agree that checking back was the better option and that I'm protected on most turns (blocking the straight, etc.). In this situation, are you calling any turn card or, readless, would you fold if more over-cards (A, K, Q) and potentially any card that pairs the board came?
I'm also interested in why you think sets such a great hand to x/r flop on a dry board like this. Does Villain not get more value c/c'ing in the hope that I volunteer more money on the turn and river? Or are we aiming to get money from opponents with over-cards and backdoor draws before the turn bricks and slashes their odds of improving? A c/r just seems like it would fold out a lot of worse hands (e.g. mid-pair type hands like 99) that might put money in on the turn or river.
First off, I made a mistake by saying it's a good bluff catcher. It's actually the opposite as it blocks his bluffs! So his range is more weighted towards value making a fold on the flop more profitable.
Erm, maybe someone can give a better answer than me, but basically my logic is that you need hands to c/r for value (and balance with correct number of bluffs) and if we assume we 3b JJ+ pre and we don't c/r our sets then we never have a strong c/r range so villain (or in this case, you) can cbet everything (inc 99 :)) knowing he's never going to be put in a tough spot.
What was the buy-in of this tourney? Live tourney's with buy-ins of less than $500 or so are notoriously soft and fishy, especially in the early levels.
I agree with checking back flop. Now that we bet I would just fold to the C/R as the guy is probably just a fish who has no idea how to disguise a monster (which he definitely has here, probably a set with 88 or 33).
As played now on the turn he rips off about a PSB screaming how strong his hand is. Just fold and move on.
Less than $500, and it certainly draws in some fish (myself included, most likely), but I also think there are some competent players in there. (It's the biggest tournament of the week in terms of buy-in / runners, aside from the big monthly competitions.)
@dablancninja - I like your logic re: balancing our x/r range with value hands (and agree that JJ+ mostly 3-bets leaving us with very few other options).
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