$82 sh nlh pko mtt - FT - bluff catching vs overbet jam
Posted by Nital J
Posted by
Nital J
posted in
Mid Stakes
$82 sh nlh pko mtt - FT - bluff catching vs overbet jam
Blinds: t1,600/t3,200 (5 Players)
UTG: 134,271
CO: 38,430
BN: 208,104
SB: 78,431
BB: 77,764 (Hero)
CO: 38,430
BN: 208,104
SB: 78,431
BB: 77,764 (Hero)
Preflop
(4,800)
Hero is BB with
3
3
, ,
Flop
(16,400)
4
6
Q
, ,
Turn
(26,896)
4
6
Q
5
, ,
River
(56,480)
4
6
Q
5
5
,
Context - ~30 hands into FT. $400 for 5th - $1.5K up top (avg bounty $300). So, some, but not major, ICM considerations.
Villain is a winning, super aggressive reg. He has overbet jammed river vs hero twice already, getting folds both times. Also barreled AJo on 88ThQ flop earlier (paid off a river flush when villain led river after check calling twice with a suited A). Hero actually typed something along lines of "keep up the spew" in chat after he pulled this overbet jam twice with us well covering him.
So, thoughts on turn and river? I would include the other hands he merge-jammed, since they didn't make much sense (for value) either. Reckon the value end of his merge range here is QT-QK+.
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Spoiler - no certain information. Hero didn't realize timebank was at 0 when hovering over call, and got auto mucked. Villain later claimed 79o on the last merge, which, despite not wanting to believe it, seems reasonable.
If you want to be sticky on turn you have to think one thing:
-You only gonna pay when you hit?
-Is pair of 3s good enough to win pot?
If at turn you think 3s could be enough, when he jams on a blank I don't think you should fold there, it's like he's trying to get you out of the pot, I don't really think there could be huge value there, but river is blank and if you call turn thinking 3s could be good (without hitting the str8) I'd call here on river. It's like we only bluff catching with alot of value in that board vs such action, but we have to go showdown and tell him to show his hand, cuz I can't see him beating the pair of 3s there, not with the shove on river, if he shows full house say congratz and move on, mostly will be bluff, after he gets 2 folds previously, he's not trying to do that for value.
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