7bb shove range in EP on 2nd ft of nightly 40k mtt
Posted by Nital J
Posted by
Nital J
posted in
High Stakes
7bb shove range in EP on 2nd ft of nightly 40k mtt
Blinds: t1,000/t2,000 (8 Players)
BB: 14,720
UTG: 112,687
UTG+1: 14,842 (Hero)
MP: 23,101
MP+1: 133,111
CO: 55,094
BN: 74,498
SB: 74,878
UTG: 112,687
UTG+1: 14,842 (Hero)
MP: 23,101
MP+1: 133,111
CO: 55,094
BN: 74,498
SB: 74,878
Preflop
(3,000)
Hero is UTG+1 with
A
5
15 left, avg stack 55-60K.
Tight numbers all mtt but pretty nitty on short stack on this table past 30 hands (12/8).
Who's shoving A5o here at this stage?
Loading 3 Comments...
From a cEV perspective, you should be shoving:
25.5%, 22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o K7s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ T8s+ 98s 87s
If you use future game simulation with two hands ahead (you on the BB), then you can shove wider:
28.6%, 22+ A2s+ A4o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s
If you consider ICM A5o is a fold.
I don't have ICMizer available and we don't have the stacks from the other table but I would assume we are on 14th place here, only 200 chips more then BB after he posted his blind. Usually the payout structure give payjumps when reaching 12 players, the earlier jump being at 15. Assuming blinds might increase fairly soon then if we fold and go through blinds without getting a hand we will be down to 10k and blinds go up to 1250-2500 so we have 4BB and no fold equity.
So maybe you are right yeah, by folding through 3 payers might be knocked out and we jump one step but have close to no chance to get further in the tournament unless we pick up a big hand because we can't really shove another marginal hand on the next orbit when we have 0 fold equity so then we wait for a premium and knockouts.
This might be flaw in my thinking, is it a big ICM mistake to shove?
It is a very small one.
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