66. Set on wet board. Tough fold?

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66. Set on wet board. Tough fold?

Blinds: t25/t50 (8 Players) SB: 4,028
BB: 3,895
UTG: 3,097
UTG+1: 3,015
MP: 2,830
MP+1: 2,280
CO: 2,925
BN: 2,932 (Hero)
15/6 on 33 hands
Preflop (75) Hero is BN with 6 6
4 folds, CO raises to 125, Hero calls 125, 2 folds
Flop (325) A 6 J
CO bets 150, Hero raises to 450, CO calls 300
I think raising here is the best play for protection (quite wet) and extract value from some aces and draws.
When he calls im putting him on good Aces, flush draw, straight draw + flush draw, pair + backdoor flush draw.
I think sets and 2 pairs would be jamming on this flop a lot
Turn (1,225) A 6 J Q
CO checks, Hero bets 520, CO raises to 2,140, Hero folds
Now when he check/jam here i think i will see a lot of straight and flushes, although there are AK with the K of hearts, maybe QJ with J hearts

The bet sizing i made to allow me a tough fold but not sure if my bet should be higher there or i should have called the jam
Final Pot CO wins 2,265

What you guys think?

Thanks for feedback

11 Comments

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Rapha Nogueira 10 years ago

Call flop. You benefit a lot from having this type of hand when you are playing a high flop calling frequency given the population tendency of cbet and give up on A high boards.

He has a higher range distribution across nutted hands and calling doesn't tighten up his range enough to hands that you don't have 3 streets of value on almost any runout.

Paid_To_Laid 10 years ago

Hey Raphael can you explain a comment again in a little more detail. thanks much
"He has a higher range distribution across nutted hands and calling doesn't tighten up his range enough to hands that you don't have 3 streets of value on almost any runout."

Rapha Nogueira 10 years ago

If his cbetting range is any gutshot to AA and we don't have AA/JJ (AJ may 3bet pre as a bluff) our raising range becomes KThh/KQhh/QThh and KTss (1 randomizer to bdfd + gut) and 6 combos of 66 and 2 combos of AJs.

This leads us into a range that is too value heavy range on a board that the nuts only change on K/Q/T/hearts so there is not much to be scared of.

If I play a calling strategy OTF and the runout is safe he may value bet three streets with AK/AQ. If we play a raising strategy OTF his turn continuing range would be near to AJ+ on blank turns, which decreases a lot the value of flopping a set and taking a raise/bet/shove strategy.

rutramax 10 years ago

Thx raphael for reply,

But shouldnt i be willing to defend that hand? i mean, any K, Q, T or hearts has an equity of 40% to hit on the turn. That isnt quite something to allow him to see the turn without charging more?

Plus my raise on the flop looks like a lot more with a draw than a set (which im trying to balance) making him jam AJ or even AQh, AKh on the flop. Im not sure he would value bet 3 street with AQ, AK without scared cards

Thanks again

Rapha Nogueira 10 years ago

66 on the worst turn card (Qh) has around 70% equity against his flop betting range. Playing a two street game with a hand this strong on this board is a nightmare.

I don't see your raise as draw heavy, as I posted before. This raise on A high boards when you have no range advantage screams strong hands because you never want to reopen the betting action with a hand as QThh when he can jam AT.

piterlanguila 9 years, 11 months ago

Rapha,so here you'd suggest to only play a calling strategy here? At which point of the hand would you raise it? I agree that by raising we're just isolating vs the best of his range, but basically, when most people bet here they'll be cbetting their gutters, fd and top pairs. Also if he's cbetting something like the TT anyways we're not gaining too much but instead letting him realize his equity. Also, I don't think that most are never folding here at that stack deep with their tpgk especially IP and we basically have the best hand in our check raising range not blocking any tp/fd combos. I'd not mind check calling on more safe boards but this one could get really tricky because any K or Q or heart completes all his flushes and gutshots so check raising the 66 later on many runouts it'd be kinda overplay the hand imo.

I think I rather leading here because he may check back KJ KK QQ, weak aces and we get value from those always and also I dont think he's ever folding most of his gutters QT/KT here too.

Overall I think it's very player dependant, I'd rather calling line vs good regs and the other vs the rest of the field

JerseyGrinder23 10 years ago

We have to get our nuts in ASAP when it is this wet. If you wait longer it can be disastrous.

rutramax 10 years ago

so you think i should be jamming on the flop or calling the turn jam? If the first one, that wouldnt be such an overbet? Besides, im making him play perfectly because im not allowing him to jam worst, except in the case that he is calling with flush draw

Thanks

ShipItUPS 9 years, 11 months ago

I hate turn sizing, missing so much value long run. That said we only need 29% equity to call off here and are like 23% vs a range of all flushes and straights. If he ever has semi bluffs or two pait here its a snap call

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