$600 MTT Live- Flush draw near the bubble
Posted by ralphykid67
Posted by
ralphykid67
posted in
Mid Stakes
$600 MTT Live- Flush draw near the bubble
260 runners, here we have 40 left with 32 paying and advancing to combine with other flights. I've been short all day grinding haven't had more than 30bbs since early in the day. I start the hand with 51k here at BB 3k (17 bbs) and am shortest at the table. Very good table with more bad players than good. I'm lowest stack at table, biggest is almost 200k.
Hero in BB with 93ss
Villain limps- Tight/passive older guy over 60 yrs old limps in EP. He has the big stack.
Fish limps off 60k stack
Good player on button limps with about 150k
Fish in sb completes with 100k
Pot 19,500
I check and flop is KQJssh
Hero check
Villain (original limper old guy) bets 12,500
Folds back to me.
Hero? (48k stack now after posting)
This is an ugly spot IMO. Do we just flat and see a turn and leave ourselves 12bbs? Blinds are going up in 10 mins so I don't love this option personally. We also could be drawing dead or very thin. Do we just fold? Seems nitty but I'll still have 16bbs and he bet very large and again my draw is good but not great. We're approaching the bubble and 16bbs is significant. Check-raise shove all in? This gives me a good price to more than double up if he happens to have a 1 or 2 pair hand. Against a hand like KQ, KJ, QJ I have 13 outs with the gut shot being live. He's tight passive and obviously has a hand here though so I have very low fold equity. But, If I hit I will have about 40bbs and be in great shape to punish this weak table on the bubble.
Villain player profile is common in live tourneys. These passive players limping range is a hand they're afraid to raise with/don't know how to play. Something like 22-99, AJ- A10, A9 ,Ax suited, KQ-K10, QJ-Q9. These guys will limp and then just fold to 3-bets all day.
Thanks for the feedback!
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bump. man these forums are lifeless lately...
Ralphy,
Allow me to start with stating: good thinking process bud.
I think it depends on you being very honest with yourself.
There is one question and one question only that matters here:
"How important is a mincash to you" how much is that $1050-$1175 worth to you. Is it a lot? than go for the fold.
Because don't misunderstand me: shoving is a +EV spot, but realise that you have 0.0% fold equity against this type of player(I'm exaggerating). but he is not going to BetFold.
That is an important thing to consider, you get the odds to shove, yes it is +EV, but you are putting your tournament life at risk.
And that is the only thing that matters there bud; how important is the mincash to you.
Your thoughts ?
Agree. That was really the problem at hand here. I'm not one to care much about mincashing with a microstack. I prefer to try to accumulate and punish the weak players on bubble. Thanks.
Shove or fold IMO never a flat. I would shove here often, min cash be damned- but folding isn't really bad. Vs. villains range you have decent equity when called- likely enough that it is a profitable chipEV jam with no fold equity. It's also nice blocking a 9 since villain gets sticky with their J9,Q9 combos in this spot having a big stack IMO.
EDIT: Some Maths:
with 0 FE you are putting in 48k and total pot will be 115,500 so your equity needs to be 48/115.5 = ~42% to break even. It becomes a question of whether you want to risk your MTT life for this thin ish spot. Given that you think the table is really soft and you have a good edge it may be a spot worth passing on- hard to quantify that sort of thing.
Yeah it was weird cuz the table is soft so I do want to stay alive. But at the same time the levels going up in a few mins and I want chips to start attacking with as the bubble looms. God damn limpers! Note that if someone raised I am mucking easily and not in this spot.
If villian is a solid player, after betting around 64% in a multi-pot on this board, he would never fold to ur jam.
Under this condition, if u shove and villian calls, u need 41.9% equity to break even.
However, against villian's assumed range: ATs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,KTs+,QTs+,JsTs,ATo,KTo+,QJo, 39s only takes 35.2%.
So i don't think it's a +EV spot, even not considering the bubble factor.
How about just call a bet and peel a turn, 'cause villian kind of commits there no matter what card landed on turn. I don't think it's a good idea either for 2 reason,
1) If T landed on turn, we are defenitely not sure this is our outs.
2) Condering our stack, we can't afford that loss.
So i sign fold!
At least, after this fold, we still have 15bb left. And we can try to find another better spot to ship it in with more fold equity.
I think fold is the play here as well. No fold equity, the table is full of bad players, and 15bbs still has fold equity for another spot. Even with rising blinds having 10-12bbs or whatever will still have FE. Bad live players don't understand short stack jam ranges and make tons of mistakes (in my experience) Thanks for the reply!
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