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$600 MTT Live- Deep ITM Spot with AQ

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

$600 MTT Live- Deep ITM Spot with AQ

25 left and a pay jump with next elimination. This is day 2 after 4 starting days combined. Over $100k for first prize. Hero has 25bbs- 500k at BB20k. 2-3 players shorter than me at the table, and 3-4 players over a million.

Blinds 20k/10k with 3k ante

Folds to Hero in HJ and I open to 45k with AQ off.

Villain- Solid reg with good results (might be a pro/semi pro) pauses on the button for 30-40secs and ships all in for 600k (30bbs). Hero?

Other info- The BB is a nit and only has 15bbs. The button is a nit and has about 20bbs. I've played with villain before and I know for sure he would 3-bet me light. This doesn't look like a light 3-bet though. This looks more like 99-JJ IMO.

Do we want to flip here? Do we think villain is ever 3-bet jamming worse (blocker hands like KQ, KJ, AJ, A10 etc)?

Thanks

4 Comments

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alexandressilva 8 years ago

easy fold I think. If you have reads on him a call can be good but will be a flip (unless he is maniac). Folding you will still have 22bbs that it's a comfortable stack for that time on the tournament and you will find a best spot to ship them in for sure. Don't even think on the pay jump but on your stack that is a pretty god stack to keep playing.
After reading my comment and doing some math/thinking I still think it would be a flip as a 30bb ship seams a lot like middle pair but with the other players in game villain could be doing this with blockers also. Assuming his range is 99+, KQo, KQs, AJs+, AQo+ you are in a 45-55 but removing the AJs and AQo you are in a 40-60 and so it's still a fold.

Riverbanged 8 years ago

I guess it somewhat depends on your image at the table. If you've been tight you can probably fold but if you've been raising wide ( or just a lot and never getting to showdown with premiums) then I think its a must call. You can basically rule out him having AA-QQ and probably AK. I think its pretty much worst case scenario a flip and he could be shoving suited broadways/AJ/AT/A2-A5s if you've been aggressive.

timetopop87 8 years ago

I think i have to agree with Riverbanged. When you say he's a solid reg we have to assume that he will be 3 bet inducing with QQ+. Without any more info we cant pinpoint his range but i would guess it could be 88-JJ A10s+ AJ+ KQs. If this is close to correct it is a 3.22 bb profitable call.
If we say its only 99-JJ AJ+ we still make 2.21bb by calling. His range could even be wider than these two examples.

Another thing to think about is if the solid reg is aware that your folding a hand this strong from this position, (assuming you are opening a standardish range) he can shove any 2 cards and print chips here! Especially if he knows the blinds are nits!

ralphykid67 8 years ago

Thanks for the replies. I thought it was kinda close. I tanked pretty hard and folded. He has tried to abuse my opens in the past (previous tourney not this one) and I have also snapped him off in a very similar spot with AA and busted him. He know's i'm opening a standard range here so I expect to get 3-bet by him often. I just wasn't sure that'd he'd be risking his tourney life here on a steal. We're so deep ITM and there's a few bad players left at our table. I just couldn't pull the trigger here but was very close.

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