55$ shove over flop raise spot
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55$ shove over flop raise spot
55$ Bovada MTT. Not alot of reads on villian as Ive been at the table for 10 hands. Hero is 6900 with A9o. In MP3. Blinds 125-250 ante 25. I raise to 500.
CO (8900) flats; BTN (7400) Flats;; BB (15k) flats
Flop is As-6c-7s- Hero bets 1.1k in2 2.2k pot
CO folds, BTN raises to 2.4k, BB folds, Hero?
If we assign 2 flush draws, 5 straight draw raises of 8-9 (might be a tad high?) , 4 units of 77 and 66 each, 4 units of AJo,
4 units each of A-7ss and A6ss, we have a profitable shove here. The tough spot in deducting is if villians draws are lowered just a bit, this is more of a fold.
Flush draws should make up 4/20 playable combos for a specified raising range, and there's 1-2 89ss flats on the button. 5-7 combos we're ahead of. 13 that we're behind. I dont see villian making any pure bluffs here, altough obv a ez shove if the case.
I think its a shove in game but close and could go either way if Im doing the math right.
We need 33% equity when called all in to shove over the flop raise?
Thoughts?
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Probably x/c probably the worst ace I have on this board since they may flat AT-AJ and I will be value cutting myself a ton when there is some action. People don't tend to play much aggressively against pfr on A high boards and I guess b/f seems better than b/c or b/s if you don't have Ac. For this price I'd peel once Ac9x and decide turn.
Interesting points. Yeh, it is a leak of mine to take very tiny tiny +ev spots that might not be +ev.
So you're saying the indifference of villian having x amount of draws and raising otf is < than or inferior to the logic that says villian will realize we are leaving ourselves with 1 PSB calling out of position on the flop and shut down on some turns with x percent of their draws, A-10x, and Ajx hey...hmm interesting point I guess elaborate more if you think I'm off here.
I dont know if I like c/calling. We have a nice chance to win a decent pot here, and if we c/c we give 2 other people a good chance on a wet board.
The problem of this texture is that their combined "nothing" (no gutter/oesd/fd/pair/set) is quite low which makes your cbet unsuccessful an amount of the time that is too high given stack sizes.
Suppose now that you cbet and get one caller. On what turns are you shoving ? On what turns are you checking ? If you get two callers, what your strategy is going to be ?
This texture I rather catch more information about their ranges before I take my action, if the flop gets check through and turn is K/Q/J/T/3/2 or even a four it is not the end of the world, right ? Your hand still have plenty of showdown value and can continue with some frequency.
i like check otf. I also ofen bet that flops and think is better to check them.
Thanks Raphael:)
Interesting, thanks for the input.
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