$530 WCOOP Exploitative river sizing choice
Posted by Rapha Nogueira
Posted by
Rapha Nogueira
posted in
High Stakes
$530 WCOOP Exploitative river sizing choice
UTG+1: 19,526
MP+1: 69,827
MP+2: 45,059
CO: 68,833
BN: 47,850
SB: 41,947
BB: 35,757 (Hero)
UTG: 44,980
For simplicity given that on sundays likely there is 10+ tables running I probably play two different strategies OTT. One that is a large bet sizing with 8x+ balanced with high equity bluffs and one that is prob A6+ with lower equity bluffs that contain good card removal effects against their calling ranges.
My first thought OTR is that I am not bluffing turn quite often since the pot is 5-ways and the fold equity seems to be low to quite low so I should pick a small to medium sizing strategy. That is true for most general strategies but the pot is already too large, 13bb is 30% of my stack and I should go for it more often than not since the board is dynamic but it doesn't hit very well players ranges.
I can have all the nut combos and high equity bluffs when they mostly can't specially considering flop the texture in which I expect any overpair+ to fast play the board often as 80-85%+ of the time so I am rarely beat by the river. At the time I didn't consider my hand as strong as this and I want my river value bet region to go from 99+ so picking all in sizing shouldn't perform as well as a smaller sizing when MP+2 range is very weak by the river. Even though this is a $530 it plays more like a $55 (specially on early stages) given the amount of recreationals playing, so almost every regular wouldn't be thrilled to bluff catch against all in size on this texture when I can have a very large portion of offsuit 8x.
Thanks in advance.
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I always approach spots against risk-averse Villains as if ICM is at play. In risk-averse Villains' minds, you both want to avoid variance, as if you are two medium stacks battling out under ICM pressure. Accordingly, a jam may get slightly more folds here than usual.
A maximally exploitative approach against such a strategy is to jam your bluffs and bet smaller with value. A minimally exploitative strategy would be to jam both bluffs and value, more weighted towards bluffs than usual. If you also want to avoid high-variance spots yourself, I imagine betting small with both value and bluffs here is the play.
Your approach seems maximally exploitative, and I like it.
I do like your line but regarding your strategy, I dont get why you bet that small OTR.
I understood your strategy and the fact that you dont want to push out of the hand Villain who might even fold an overpair facing too big of a value bet OTR but as long as he s certainly not 3bet jamming anything less than a boat, which would implicate an easy fold for you, imho, you could go for a bigger sizing than 25% of the pot. What about a bet between 9 and 11k. I would even consider trying to go a bit bigger. What do you think?
The boat frequency for IP should be low to extremely low given how tight MP is opening and his flop check. The merit of betting 25% is to leave room for IP raise with some blockers and force calls from weaker hands which 50% or so doesn't accomplish.
Why bet small? We bet into 5 people, are we ever bluffing?
Our hand is nut heavy -- and i would overbet everything -- both with value hands and the 3-5 bluff combos that we arrive river with.
The more value bets you have proportionally to bluffs, the less you should bet in general.
Sorry, didnt get the full meaning of your assertion.
What do you mean by "the less you should be in general"?
Regards
corrected it.
Cheers
@Raphael:
Does that mean that we should bet a "smaller amount" when we have more value bets than bluffs or does that mean that we should bet "at a smaller frequency" when we have more value bets than bluffs? Arent we losing some EV by following that reasoning?
I think I would choose one sizing OTT (smaller sizing) we actually want small sizings multiway on paired boards ( btw I like your split sizings and hand choice hu ) and then we overbet river here theoretically , I get why you block as your perceived to be underbluffing a ton .... but you don't need to you can increase your bluffs you've got 16 combos of 54 for a start , not that you should use all 54 and it doesn't block calls ( although 9 doesn't contain a club vs a5cc and a4cc) its just purely an example we can find bluffs , so I don't split turn this multiway I just block and then we overbet river and we find some added bluffs , if we cant find added bluffs fully to the extent we have so what , lets not sacrifice ev of betting 8x to a block here especially in a mtt that's ( playing like a $55 f/o) I think your thinking lines are good in a HU pot and we want 2 sizings however blocking range in these multiway scenarios you will find good , Also on texture shifts we get to bluff more of our range and we are playing our range very flexibly.
Preflop is a fold five ways. I'd mostly bet AI otr, but mixing in an occasional block is a fine play, i'd usually prefer doing it with 8x that has a kicker that doesn't play.
Hi
what would you call in your bottom range here ? KJ, KT ?
I think its fine to block here every once in a while but in general I'd shove here, we still have plenty of bluffs, 45/57/ missed FDs and calling a shove with any pair is fairly reasonable from villain here.
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