500€ SCOOP main .fr, vomit spot with top 2 early on
Posted by Jarvis Blocker
Posted by
Jarvis Blocker
posted in
High Stakes
500€ SCOOP main .fr, vomit spot with top 2 early on
UTG3: bemyguestbud: 27060
LJ: BoysDontCRAI: 20478
HJ: $oro-winner is sitting out: 19100
CO: LarsMoorman1: 11675
BN: JohnH1: 23403
SB: thebalnave: 31569
BB: Heroinher0n: 18920
UTG: rim-k13 is sitting out: 19130
UTG1: junkygirl760: 24921
Jon Doe folds, junkygirl760 folds, bemyguestbud folds, BoysDontCRAI raises to 240, Jon Doe folds, LarsMoorman1 calls 240, JohnH1 folds, thebalnave folds, Heroinher0n calls 160
I know my turn sizing is way too small here :(
Anyway, I have the main villain fish tagged, he's 16/11/2 over 200+ hands and generally a passive stationey type. Not a massive whale or anything, just generally a poor passive player in my books - some margin of error there I guess since the hand sample is mainly from some other stuff. This tournament is like the softest 500 of the year, has endless levels and 20k starting stack. I have done nothing and villain has mainly bled his chips doing terrible calldowns. He has very low aggression stats for everything postflop. I don't have much on him beyond this, it's really early. The other guy is a some kind of reg I think, at least not someone either of us would view as a fish which I think is kind of important. Also please note villain's stack.
So I guess my question is mainly which button to press, I timebanked a lot here. I don't think he has AA here ever, and I think TT should be heavily discounted (I have a blocker, he sometimes 3bets, and would often just flat turn imo?). I think 77 fits this line perfectly. I think he always peels 86s here pre and miiiight float the flop (he has shown tendencies to be a bit floaty and flat wide pre this deep). Not sure if he can have J8s. I don't think he's the type to do this with KQ QJ KJ. I don't think he ever ever has AK-AJ here.
I guess this comes down to how often he has A7 and A9 against the times when he has 77 or a straight? I think I could have made this a lot easier for myself by just betting a legit amount on the turn, and now I just hate life.
As a bonus question, let's imagine we had 20k stacks (and I still made this terribly small turn bet somehow). Would it then be a decent idea to call with the plan of calling a bet up to like 55% pot on brick rivers and fold to big bets, since I think that way we could still beat his two pairs with which he'd valuecut himself (I think he's bad enough to often raise the turn with them) but couldn't really bet huge otr with since I'm always folding? With these stacks I don't see any point in flatting since we'd only have 80% pot or so behind OTR.
Loading 4 Comments...
Why do you say your turn sizing is terrible, to start with? It looks as if you think that by betting bigger, you would have had a better decision (which I think is untrue). Betting bigger might be better for different reasons, but I don't find your sizing terrible at all. To be honest I don't think vilain often have A9o (he won't flat that all the time preflop given his tendencies), I don't think he raises turn with A7s. He could have AT as well.
Given what you say, it seems that vilain is never raising QJ on the turn right? You don't seem to give him a value range. I think we can bet/fold against vilain, as he is described (wouldn't you add T9s in his value range though?) : if vilain never bluffs, then fold.
The very fact that you 'vomited' this spot (that would be an easy bet/call or bet/shove against other players), clearly indicates to me (my view of the game), that your experience and instinct is speaking here, based on practice and recognition of situations: you recognize that vilain is the kind of guy that would never bluff here.
Don't mind the turnsizing at all. If this is the type of dinosaur villain that plays turns face up, he's so much more tailored towards sets and straights than anything else. Obviously there aren't that many combos floating around since we block a lot of sets, and suited 86 and j8 is around 8 combos, so like 12 combos in total.
However, if we include j8 and 86s in his range, we kinda should put in sooted Ax as wel, therefor A9 and A7 - and even AT are viable hands in his range that will probably raise turns too, coz he put you on AK.
I think overall this is a very good disciplined fold, given that villlain seems to be from the Mesozoic era, and we're never getting exploited by folding.
p.s. Pls put up your thread again on 2+2, i miss reading your adventure.Don't think you can fold turn. You're getting like 4:1 and I think its way too likely he has A9/A7s or even a hand like AQ that wants to get a cheaper showdown by raising small and checking back…I see that play quite a bit and theres just so few value combos, especially given he will presumably raise flop with 77 at least some of the time.
I would usually agree to this, but given the context of villain this might not be a profitable call. He's also raising turn into 2 players, rather than one.
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