Why not just 3B pre or fold the flop?? As played - I haven't got a clue.

3b pre. Flop is a very borderline call and you are guessing the others streets. Turn is a must fold.

I see the argument for a 3b pre here, I often do, gameflow, stack setups and the fact that he's not calling me w/ worse Ax as often as bad players and paying me off post makes me like a flat better here.  My overall gameplan probably has a higher flatting rate w/ 'premiums' than standard midstake reg in certain spots.

If one is flatting AK pre vs a reg who cbets a fair amount flop is a must call IP...his range hits that rarely enough and he's going to be cbetting that board 80% or more and expect me to be floating him a fair amount as well.

If that is right he's 2barrelling me a ton here, and his turn cbet stat in my large(ish), <1k hands, had him turn cbetting a fair amount.  That said, I do not expect a river bluff from him into me as my range is fairly uncapped and its not a good 3barrell board OOP, whereas his is going to be heavily tilted towards broadways and 1p type hands as opposed to tens w/ that bet sizing (slightly large flop and turn gets his stack in by river easily).  

I called turn w/ intention of folding to river bets on most any river and betsize.   There are a crapton more combos of broadways cbetting twice than Tx in his range...esp w/ only two tens left (8T, 9T, JT, QTs, KTs, AT), that makes turn a call as im good more than 50% of the time and he's betting less than half pot.

The most interesting part imo still is the river, operating on the above hand reading he still has very few Tx's, some 8x, definitely a lot of Jx, he should be expecting me to have 66+, Tx, 78s,89s, and maybe some FD's...but he should know better than to think i have a FD no pair there.  So when he leads river small it screams, call me 8, PP or worse J.  B/c Im fairly sure hes not bluff betting this ever, and our range is entirely value hands except for the odd AK value float (as our other floats fold turn a lot) he should expect our J calling range (which is small) to be calling big bets, Tx to be raising and the vast majority of our range, which is now an underpair to J, probably has to fold that river to a bet over half pot (they probably should fold anyway, but there's his reasoning behind the small bet I'd guess).

That last part is super speculative, and I couldnt figure whether hed go 1/2, 1/2, 1/3rd with a hand like 88, TT, JJ or AJ, I dont really think he would...I elected to shove in game fwiw, but if his range for that line is entirely those hands its a terribad shove, that said Im fairly certain thats not the case.

I see that you have your reasons to call there. I don't know the history, so in my default point of view: Playing 75/150 I would not 3b that much also, but this spot is very good to do. 3betting a guy who is next to you, in late position, a hand that plays ok in 3b pots... And I think he peels AJs, AQ, maybe some A5s-. 

Playing this shallow, you don't need to guess three streets. I am not saying that your line is right or wrong, but this is a bad spot to play in MTTs. Floating paired boards are not my favourite, also. I rather do it in boards that equities have dynamics. Against a T your equity is almost static. Against J9, 97 you are doing great but it is nearly a flip OTF, or similar. 

Find good spots pre, 3b more, exploit weaker players. Also, putting some math on your reasoning makes it more clear to read and understand. That is not a criticism, just a tip. I see a lot of assumptions but you need to go on PPT/CREV and check it, check how much you lose if you are wrong. 

Floating QJ/Q9 w bdfd, 97, J9 is perfectly fine. But AK is unnecessary, specially this early and on this paired board.

Did you shove AK there ? If so, it does not make any sense to me. Which bluffs that he has that you are losing with AK high ? None. Is he folding a 8 to a shove ? Probably. He has a 8 on his triple barrel range ? Unlikely. Is he folding 97, J9, T, QJ ? I really doubt. 

If you shoved this spot, I suggest you take a look on Mathematics of Poker, the solution to AKQ game. I hope this does not sound harsh or something, I really like to post on the MTT forum to help people and I think that your reasoning may be right for the thinking process, but this shove can't be good.

Nope doesn't sound harsh at all :) It's a great critique and, yeah, I do need more math in my posts, although w/ this one I guess I thought it was less needed since combo math can be done roughly/quickly in one's head...but yeah it would make a clearer post.

Fwiw, and its an excuse, pretty sure there was a LP player not dealt in and I thought I was more MP, didn't notice until I posted the hand.  That said, I still probably flat AK ~ half the time there depending on specific stack setups etc...idk, I flat AK a lot IP, it plays so damn well post vs ppls perception of your range.

Imo he is cbetting a range that is nearly all his hands that aren't now just total undercards to the board or K7s crap (if, for some reason that time he was opening very light).  He's also 2barelling nearly his entire cbet range, although may start x/c 66-99, and I can kinda rule out most 88, 8T, TT b/c of timing tell/betsizing, wasn't a spot where this player would take this line with hands that crush the board leaving me w/o hands to call.

Vs a competent player cbetting imo the AK is still a call, as we can fold to river bets (as was the plan before his line got weird) since he is simply just never ever straight bluffing river imo, and we are good well more than half the time (and that half the time we almost always get to SD unless he hits river).  I like you're reasoning why not, and I think vs other players who ive flatted AK IP w/ maybe i should be taking a line like you suggest instead....vs a competent non-crusher MSMTT reg in this setup Im not quite convinced, although think it's pretty close.

Hes not folding straights on river imo, but he is folding any J except maybe AJ, but even that may fold, and his 8x has to fold if he for some reason was betting there (I doubt it though).  The thing I run into is, and what I was trying to get at, is his nutted value isn't playing his hand this way (I don't believe, was one of the questions in the OP, not sure if that's right, but I think it is).  He's not straight bluffing that river ever w/ me flatting IP, since my range is heavily weighted towards hands that are calling him...since my range is so weighted his b/c value range isn't just going to bet small, it's a terrible spot to induce and value cuts him, therefore in my mind this just screams a rivered J (of which there are a LOT of combos as compared to any other hand which may take this line)

EDIT: Just to make it clear since Im a rambling poster, imo any hand hes betting here is > AK, may be sometime turned into a bluff, but I dont think hes turning his overcards that were two barells into a bluff on this river.

 We don't have any serious river bluff-raising dynamic in our history is worth noting.   imo he folds a jack to a river shove when I made the play, since when I shove I have 88 or Tx (not even a straight usually) pretty much, and he's more than competent enough to know my flat IP, flat IP, shove over river lead range is crazy strong making any J worse than AJ a complete bluffcatch. 

Fwiw I got a slight tank-fold, I sorta presume it was a J, but that's only consequential in that it tells us he can b/f a hand like that on the river.  Im more worried if it's at all possible Im misreading his hand ranges drastically.

Loved the feedback Raphael, I may slightly disagree over this specific spot about the turn play, but you touched on a bunch of stuff that is endemic to my game that needs work clearly.  Time to study :)

If he had a QJ, would be a very good spot to x/c. You block the nut straight and rivered TP on busted missed fd board, that is a reasonable part of your floating range. If he bet/f QJ is a big leak on his strategy. Did you pick anything on his sizing OTR ? 

"If he bet/f QJ is a big leak on his strategy. Did you pick anything on his sizing OTR ? "

Disagree w/ that first part, imo people simply aren't bluffing this river often enough to make that a b/c, and people are checking back their entire calling range that you'd beat and betting only hands that you lose to or bluffs, so unless your opponent is double floating air IP then bluffing river QJ is a b/f > x/f > x/c imo...until he bets river my AK was for value//ahead of his leading range

and I dont have all that many SD floats that dont hit or have a pair, Backdoor FDs there are only a few select combos of that go w/ suited SDs and AK.

And yeah, the third pot sizing looked like he's doing what I described above 

"He's not straight bluffing that river ever w/ me flatting IP, since my range is heavily weighted towards hands that are calling him...since my range is so weighted his b/c value range isn't just going to bet small, it's a terrible spot to induce and value cuts him, therefore in my mind this just screams a rivered J (of which there are a LOT of combos as compared to any other hand which may take this line)"

Trying to get the vast majority of my weak calling range to call another bet w/ the third pot bet.  It doesn't look like a great spot to be inducing, and if I called two streets I clearly have some piece of this, so even if you have TT or 88 or AT or AJ he should be betting out a bigger % of pot as described.  Third pot looks like thin, weak capped value, and I don't think it's ever strong value hands like the previously listed.

primarily, his bet sizing is wrong because none value hand he goes this small against a range that is kinda strong, since double floating A high is not the most common thing ever.

If he has QJ is an absurd fold. He blocks JT, Q9 and one of the reasons to keep barreling this board is having 2 overs and a gutter. If I had QJ, JT, Q9, T8, T9 I would shove this river. You can say that we dont have many bluffs on this spot. Yes, but this board it is kinda rare to hit and since the equities have very little dynamic this J is a pivot card on equities. It is a huge mistake to dont exploit that because it is the perfect card to shove. There is no check on this situation. There is no bet sizing reasonable to exploit this texture and your perceived range that is not all in. 

I think the first line of your reply is why it's a shove...b/c even IF he does as you think is bad and plays QJ by leading a third, is the person who leads that size really calling a shove? given the reasoning behind the betsize.  I'm fairly sure the answer is no now.

QJ/J9 are good bluff catchers there. Blocks a lot of Tx that you call pre, blocks Q9/97/JT... this sizing is good to induce but we are kinda shallow to induce a shove there. I don't have the answer to b/c because I would never bet 1/3 pot on this card. If so, I still would call sometimes because we have a very decent bluff catcher w QJ/J9 and you can turn clubs/8 into a bluff, in a situation that usually our hand does not block your bluffs but blocks your value hands.

but all the hand looks kinda weird to me lol

he's almost given 1/2 his chips in the pot, the shove lol can blow away his 99,J9 maybe, but AJ,KJ, dont think so.

if u deceided to flat 3 street, i would raise on flop.