3 BET PUSH
Posted by opapa
Posted by
opapa
posted in
Mid Stakes
3 BET PUSH
Dear Friends,
Please check my calculations. Is it ok ? No mistakes ?
EV = FE *POT + (1-FE) * (Equity * (TOTAL POT with total stacks) - YOURSTACK) it is OK ? NO MISTAKES ?
1) BB - 17 blinds, POT 2,4 (1 + 0,5 +9*0,1)
Button open 2x with 40% of his range and call 3 bet PUSH with 10,86%(A8s+, A9o, 55+ )
I am big blind with 23о
EV = FE *POT + (1-FE) * (Equity * (TOTAL POT with total stacks) - YOURSTACK)
EV = 0.73*4.4 + 0.27*(0,25*(34+0,5+0,9)-16bb) ~ 1 BB
2) UTG open 2х (22+,А9+, А7s+, KJo-KQo, KTs-KQs,QTs-QJs, JTs - 16%) and call 3 bet all in 99+,AQ+ - 5%
i am BB with 27s
EV = FE *POT + (1-FE) * (Equity * (TOTAL POT with total stacks) - YOURSTACK)
EV = 0.69*4.4 + 0.31*(0,25*(34+0,5+0,9)-16bb) ~ 0,5 BB
Loading 2 Comments...
Your calculations seem right to me.
Indeed, vs some players who open wide/call a 3bet tight you can shove any two and make a profit as long as they don't notice and adjust.
But any decent reg will call you wider that 55+, A8s+, A9o+ , making your shove with 32o -EV.
I would call something like 44+ A4s+ A7o+ KTs+ KQo with no big ICM decision to take into consideration vs an unknown. If I saw you have an extremely wide 3bet in a decent sample here I would expand my range to 33+ A2s+ A5o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+.
Vs this ranges you are losing with your shove compared to folding -0.6 bb and -1.7bb, respectively .
Taking these into consideration, at low stakes MTT you can still exploit some ppl (the nitreg and the nitfish) by shoving wider on them but I would not go as far as shoving any 2 in this spot.
In certain ICM spots it is for sure very profitable to shove any two but that is a different discussion altogether.
Thank you for so accurate answer
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