2,5k€ vs treezer

Posted by LazySummerDays

Posted by LazySummerDays posted in High Stakes

Posted 10 years, 4 months ago

2,5k€ vs treezer

Blinds: t300/t600 (5 Players) SB: 20,102
BB: 91,394
UTG: 47,244 (Hero)
CO: 57,464
BN: 67,370

I've played with treezer a some amount during the past years, but I have no particular reads.
His stats are 37% VPIP 41% Raise First, 11% 3b and 50% c-r flop (sample only 2) over 45 hands
Mine are correspondingly 33% / 41% / 9% over 452 hands, however treezer probably has me playing tigther over his 45 hand sample.

UTG+1 and SB have been playing very tight, passive and straightforward throughout 300 hands I've had with them in this tournie. BTN is another 5/10 cash game reg.

18 paid, around 48 left so no bubble implications.

Preflop (900) Hero is UTG with Q J

Hero raises to 1,350, CO calls 1,350, 2 folds, BB calls 750

Flop (4,700) 7 4 J

BB checks, Hero bets 1,850, CO folds, BB raises to 5,300, Hero calls 3,450

Turn is 7h, treezer bets 8,7k into 15,3k.

I'm wondering if there's any merit to shove the turn. I came to a conclusion that if treezer takes this line with AJ for value it, we should fold based on these assumptions.

Let's assume treezer's flop C-R range is
44(3), 77(1), AJ(5) discounting AdJs, A2s, A3s, A5s, A6s, A8s, A9s, ATs, 56s, possibly 98s, T9s, T8s

3x(0.091) + 1x(0) + 5x(0.0977) / 9 = on avg. 8,46% equity when called

Risking 40524 to win 24000. 9 times I lose around 32372, 11 times I win 24k. So on avg. I'd win -1.36k with a shove. If he doesn't have AJ in his range, a shove would show immediate profit (~4,6k) even if he has 8 only draws. (98s, T9s, T8s discounted.)

So AJ+ is a shove in my shoes, no?
Is there a scenario you would consider call turn/decide river a better line?

5 Comments

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Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 4 months ago

Why are those hands (A2s, A3s, A5s, A6s, A8s, A9s, ATs) on his x/r range and not 74s/J7s ? I wouldn't even fold J4s pre.

I have no clue who treezer is but QJo in lineups that aren't soft isn't making $ from UTG very often. Cbetting it three way seems very optimistic. Having the Qd/Jd would help to check back and be more comfortable on most turns but this hand have two streets of value only against non believers or really close value bets against JT/J9s type of hands. If you jam turn you are basically value bluffing (as Dvoress series explains well) and is a ok line given how much dead money is already on the pot but I'd call turn and decide rivers.

LazySummerDays 10 years, 4 months ago

J7s is definitely possible, but it's only one combo. Don't think treezer is bad enough to c-r 74s here, J4s is counterfeited obv.

I'm 95% I can open this hand winningly against this lineup. (350 in antes, doesn't show in converter.) There are plenty of jacks I check this flop, (QdJx, QxJd, JxTd, JdTx and occasionally AdJx, KdJx), this being not one of them it's a bet IMO.

EDIT: Just realized I'm contradicting myself a bit by assuming he might c-r AJ, but not 74s. First instinct was that with 74s he doesn't want to play guessing game for 2 streets OOP when often a card above 8 or flush hits. 74s can still check-raise some turns for value, where as AJ would valuecut itself.

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 4 months ago

you are using turn information to make decisions about his flop play.

this is a board that the x/c range from bb is so weak on many runouts that some people doesn't even have one. peter jennings talks about this on one of his videos.

74s should try to play this board faster than AJ since is more vulnerable and also and he can't be that scared on you hitting 2 pair OTT in a scenario of more than 30 cards to hit that are overcards to 7 and doesn't make the flush

I'd check all my QJ hands and bet KJ/AJ+ for value.

if J4 is counterfeited, maybe it is a nice time to turn it into a bluff, right ?

Henritank 10 years, 2 months ago

I am not so experienced but why would you suggest to check back top pairs with a BDFD and bet top pairs without one? don't really understand the reason behind it but obv. it has some logic.