2,5k€ vs treezer
Posted by LazySummerDays
Posted by
LazySummerDays
posted in
High Stakes
2,5k€ vs treezer
BB: 91,394
UTG: 47,244 (Hero)
CO: 57,464
BN: 67,370
His stats are 37% VPIP 41% Raise First, 11% 3b and 50% c-r flop (sample only 2) over 45 hands
Mine are correspondingly 33% / 41% / 9% over 452 hands, however treezer probably has me playing tigther over his 45 hand sample.
UTG+1 and SB have been playing very tight, passive and straightforward throughout 300 hands I've had with them in this tournie. BTN is another 5/10 cash game reg.
18 paid, around 48 left so no bubble implications.
Turn is 7h, treezer bets 8,7k into 15,3k.
I'm wondering if there's any merit to shove the turn. I came to a conclusion that if treezer takes this line with AJ for value it, we should fold based on these assumptions.
Let's assume treezer's flop C-R range is
44(3), 77(1), AJ(5) discounting AdJs, A2s, A3s, A5s, A6s, A8s, A9s, ATs, 56s, possibly 98s, T9s, T8s
3x(0.091) + 1x(0) + 5x(0.0977) / 9 = on avg. 8,46% equity when called
Risking 40524 to win 24000. 9 times I lose around 32372, 11 times I win 24k. So on avg. I'd win -1.36k with a shove. If he doesn't have AJ in his range, a shove would show immediate profit (~4,6k) even if he has 8 only draws. (98s, T9s, T8s discounted.)
So AJ+ is a shove in my shoes, no?
Is there a scenario you would consider call turn/decide river a better line?
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