220kr ($24) level 1, 3bet pot vs reg
Posted by origamihero
Posted by
origamihero
posted in
Mid Stakes
220kr ($24) level 1, 3bet pot vs reg
Blinds 10/20 no ante.
LJ (fish, stack 3000) raises to 55,
Hero, BTN (2940) calls with JTdd.
SB (reg, stack 2740) 3bets to 280. Folds to LJ who folds, hero calls.
Flop Qc8d5s. Pot is 635, Villain bets 211, hero calls.
Turn Kd. Pot is 1057, Villain (2249) bets 957. Hero (2449) folds.
I don't see how villain has any bluffs in this spot, giving her a very nutted range of QQ+, AK+ at the very least. Her hand strength doesn't really matter as we have roughly 30% equity against all holdings of Qx or better, and she's very much committed at this point. I don't see villain ever folding to a shove, and needing ~47% equity to just call makes it seem to me that the only viable option is to fold.
I was considering 3betting preflop to isolate, and possibly folding to a 4bet depending on size.
Is floating flop too marginal? I gave SB a range of JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo, which we have ~27% equity against, needing 25% to break even. I was considering implied odds given how deep we we're. Still, should we try to avoid these break even spots against strong regs?
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We need 32.2% on the turn call, not 47%.
Anyway I guess that when he is on that strong of a range he is seldomly folding any river, so we also have implied odds for at least a good percentage of his remaining stack, making the call slightly +ev.
But will it suck 70% of the times? Yes it will. :)
Personally I don't see how can you fold on the flop thou. GS + a bunch of BDs and even some pair equity vs AK plus position it's got to be a call. Also, when he's on AK and he misses turn he will check a lot as we are kind of Q heavy in our range.
that's it.
I can't see how you can fold thins turn after hitting the dream card. But I agree it's unlikely you have much FE, so calling is probably better than jamming.
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