22$ freez semi-FT line check

Posted by

Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

22$ freez semi-FT line check

Blinds: t4,000/t8,000 (5 Players) BB: 260,132 (Hero)
UTG: 423,086
CO: 81,474
BN: 573,270
SB: 287,526
Preflop (12,000) Hero is BB with 5 5
2 folds, BN raises to 16,000, SB folds, Hero raises to 38,888, BN calls 22,888
semi-FT, BN have decent stats so prob reg 19/14/4 vpip/pfr/3b after big sample.
In retrospect i think call is the best option. As played i 3b with intention to shove or call if he shoves, but unless we don't have dynamic or he is not super agro i think its little bit too risky to level myself and give him 22+, A2s+ shoving range after my 3bet here. But...
Flop (86,776) Q 9 J
Hero bets 34,710, BN calls 34,710
do you like check otf? i mean its not too good for us based on V calling range preflop. It's really hard to put him on exactly range, but 4me its offen hits in his range here
Turn (156,196) Q 9 J J
Hero checks, BN checks
River (156,196) Q 9 J J Q
Hero bets 61,222
what you think about bluff the river? risking 1/2 stack and fold now is meehh... but i believe i have some FE here from hands like T9s, AT.

4 Comments

Loading 4 Comments...

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 2 months ago

55 is an ok flat, I don't see much merit to play a bloated pot oop with a hand that flops so badly when you have little preflop fold equity. This board smashes his range, I'd give up.

Seth 10 years, 2 months ago

I don't think many hands at all in his range are folding river. He has a lot of hands like AJ, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JTs that are all calling the river, so like 60 hand combinations. The only folds are probably AT (unless AhTh) and T9s, maybe some weird A9s/K9s, so 18 or 24 hands. So about 60 to 20.

So if that's the case, he's calling - beating you - about 75% of times. I think that's a bit too much though, so he might be folding some of the hands where he beats you and calling some of your bluffs where you still only chop, and also in a very few cases some super weird Ax or Kx type hands where he still beats you if he calls. So at best he's only calling - beating you - 70% of times.

Since your raise on river is about 39% of the pot it's a bad deal for you.

All in all, you should probably have given up way earlier than that anyway since the board hits his range so hard already on the flop.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy