22 Cubed AK ICM decision

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

22 Cubed AK ICM decision

BN: 178206
SB: 1721265
BB: 272326 (Hero)
HJ: 267072
CO: 1074131
Preflop (37500) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt K A
HJ folds, CO raises to 50000, BN folds, SB raises to 137500, Hero raises to 269826, and is all in
Final table of 22 cubed payout are 1st 4515, 2nd 3343, 3rd 2459, 4th 1874, 5th 1312.

I am 3 of 5 there are 3 small stacks and 2 big stacks. We have been 5 handed with similar stack distributions for about 25 hands with the big stacks opening and taking it down or shorties open jamming ( under 12bb ) or 3b jamming big stacks opens (when 12-18bb). No one seems to be playing badly for the situation everyone seems competent and aware of ICM ( shortest stack is jamming when moving away from the pack the biggest shorties tightening when necessary). I had shoved twice in the last 25 hands once a 3b jam the other an open rip from utg1 both uncalled.

This was the first time SB had 3b the other big stack though it felt like it could be light as it felt to me like the right time for him to 3b as 1) he had yet to , 2) he had been laggy previously when we were 6-9 handed, 3) he had not had many opportunities to 3b the other big stack, 4) his image in the past 4 oribts had been good ( he had not show down any junk though was probably just through it not getting to showdown ) 5) He had recently won a few pots and is now in clear first for the previous 25 hands the 2 big stacks were closer. This is all just speculation though but was my take on it in game.

I think i played this hand badly and would like some help with my ranges which whilst i know is hard given game flow etc.. i would appreciate any input.

I have been messing around with ICM calcs and the numbers i am putting in are. Note my calc only lets me have CO shoving or folding which i have sort of taken account of.

CO open 51% (22+,A2+,K3s+,K5o+,Q5s+,Q6o+,J6s+,J7o+,T7+,97+,87s,75s+,64s+,54s) calling a shove by me 7% (88+,ATs+,AJo+) and SB over calling a CO re-jam with only QQ+.

SB 3b 20.66% (22+,A5s+,A8o+,K9s+,KTo+,Q9s+,QJo,J9s+,T9s) calling my shove when CO folds 20.66 %

I think the toughest part of the range construction is for the SB 3b as this is where most of my all ins will occur as CO will probably be folding a lot of his opening range.

With the above ranges it is showing it being a losing shove $EV and obviously +cEV it is pretty close though which does make me think that the value of having a 700k stack may outweigh some $ that ICM does not take into account ( i dont have to keep folding, i can win a lot more pots later etc).

I know its a bit of a 'how long is a piece of string?' question but any help would be appreciated.

Thanks


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